The US is trying to dust off the legislation against OPEC, but it may not help
In early May, the US House of Representatives Judiciary Committee reportedly considered a bill to pressure oil-producing group OPEC to stop cutting production by lifting the sovereign immunity that protected OPEC+ members and their national oil companies from price collusion lawsuits.
The OPEC basket price has hovered around $70, not at an all-time high, even though US politicians like to talk about the price of gasoline before the summer season begins.
Gasoline prices are higher than during the Trump administration, but polling organization Gallup reported in April 2023 that "Americans show significantly less concern about the U.S. energy situation than they did a year ago."
If US consumers aren't rioting over gasoline prices and OPEC's recent production cuts have failed to stop the plunge in crude oil prices, why might OPEC be a target of US policy right now?
One reason could be the good news coming from the Middle East: a rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia (with Chinese mediation); Egypt and Iran starting to normalize relations (with Iraq's mediation); Syria returning to the Arab League; the United Arab Emirates and Iran in talks to promote ties and the possibility of energy cooperation between Iraq and Iran. The bill could be retaliation against Arab OPEC countries, and a warning to others, for normalizing ties with Iran and Syria under the guise of protecting US consumers. Also, avoid discussing the Biden administration's policy of limiting oil and natural gas production, even though the administration has lately approved limited drilling on federal lands.
Related: Oil prices rise amid expectations of an expanding market
And not to be outdone, a bipartisan group of US lawmakers just announced the “Assad Regime Anti-Normalization Act of 2023″, which would thwart foreign governments' rapprochement with Syria and allow for further sanctions on anyone doing business with the government. of Assad.
The losers in this situation in the area are obviously the United States, which sees its influence diminish as OPEC members in the Middle East begin to normalize with the hated governments in Tehran and Damascus, and welcomes the mediation of the China in the negotiations between Tehran and Riyadh, and Russia's facilitation in the talks between Saudi Arabia and Syria, and Syria and Turkey. A real nightmare for US politics.
Normalizing relations between the OPEC Arab states and Iran and Syria would reduce tensions in the region, which is not in Washington's interest, as big customers like the Saudis and the Emiratis could curtail arms purchases for to counter Iran. Tensions also keep the US engaged in the neighborhood to "ensure stability", although US actions in Iraq and Libya (and supporting role in Yemen) have ensured otherwise. And tensions in the region make it easy for Israeli Shabbos goy in the United States to dent any attempts to pressure Israel and the Palestinians to start peace talks “or otherwise,” especially if the Pals invite the Chinese into the process.
The US may be missing out on the fact that Middle Eastern OPEC states, most of which are run by kings or emirs, need to heed popular sentiment – a secret to successful governance without elections. While Iran is not popular with citizens of Arab OPEC countries, closer relations could lead to less tension and greater people-to-people ties and economic opportunities that will promote stability more important than democracy for the Arab Spring generation, according to a recent survey conducted across the region.
The problem is that an absolute monarchy must, paradoxically, take more account of the man of the population, than a Western democracy (or half-democracy). A 2022 poll of Arab youth also found that “nearly three-quarters (73%) want to see the US disengage from the region. China, Turkey and Russia are now considered the region's strongest allies” and “the default position of looking to the West in times of crisis is being eroded by new sympathies towards China, Russia and Turkey”.
This sentiment could lead to other Arab states, such as Saudi Arabia, not rushing to join US projects like the Abraham Accords, which Israel still hopes are a detour to peace talks with the Palestinians, and instead favoring internal initiatives to stabilize the region.
Thus, Washington's attack on the economic engine of the Middle East, oil, and the use of sanctions to halt attempts to end the conflict and alienation between the OPEC Arabs and Iran and Syria. It is important that peace does not break out, because this would reduce arms sales, increase regional economic integration and diversification, reducing the need for Washington's "solutions", and introduce new economic and political actors into the region, such as the CI
Thus, Washington's attack on the economic engine of the Middle East, oil, and the use of sanctions to halt attempts to end the conflict and alienation between the OPEC Arabs and Iran and Syria. It is important that peace does not break out, because this would reduce arms sales, increase regional economic diversification and integration, reducing the need for Washington's "solutions", and introduce new economic and political players into the region, such as China and Turkey.
Washington has a lot of power and can force events in the short term, but it has already lost the hearts and minds of young Middle Easterners who, since 2001, have matured with the United States continually engaged in combat operations on their lands – and all for nothing. . Going forward, it would be wise for Washington to recall its Cold War policy, which understood that civil rights and economic opportunity for all Americans were the nation's best weapon in the war of ideas against Communism. It worked against the Reds then and it will work against the Islamists today, and if America is to be part of the region's future, it should stop being the worst example.
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The article The US tries to dust off the legislation against OPEC, but it may not help comes from Economic Scenarios .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/gli-usa-cercano-di-rispolverare-la-normativa-contro-lopec-ma-potrebbe-non-servire/ on Thu, 18 May 2023 12:28:13 +0000.