There is a 10% chance that the world will end. So…. it would be logical to buy shares
BCA research, a well-known research firm that advises the banking system around the world, has produced shocking research on the risk of a nuclear apocalypse on behalf of its lead researcher Peter Berezin.
The title of this journal is " Rising Risk Of A Nuclear Apocalypse ", and Berezin writes that " the risk of Armageddon has increased dramatically " and now this event has an " uncomfortably high 10% probability " for the following reasons:
- if Putin feels he has no future, he might try to bring everyone down with him. The collapse of the ruble, and what will surely be a serious drop in the standard of living across Russia, could foment internal opposition to Putin. A quiet retreat is not an option for him;
- While there is a huge margin of error around any estimate, subjectively, we would assign an uncomfortably high 10% probability of a global nuclear war ending civilization in the next 12 months.
We could ironically speak of a good shot of optimism, or more simply, and seriously, of realism, but actually we are facing the greatest world military crisis since the 1950s (Cuban crisis) or the 1983 crisis, more dangerous and less known. . After all, the search for the term "Russian nuclear weapons" is now skyrocketing
What to do in this case? Simple: buy stocks. It sounds unbelievable, but that's the way it is. Because obviously tomorrow and in the next few days the stock market will go down, but there are two cases:
- or the world ends, and what we do is perfectly useless, so doing it or not doing it is indifferent,
- or the world does not end and then the investment, in the medium term, will prove to be successful.
This is reminiscent of an episode that occurred during the Cuban missile crisis: the rumor had spread that nuclear missiles had been launched against New York. Then a young trader tried to sell, without succeeding. His senior boss calms him down and calls him to the office. “What do I do now” “Sit down and let's have a glass of Whiskey. So, afterwards, come down and buy ".
Obviously now the values will touch the minimum. So either everything ends, and whatever happens will all disappear, and the only important thing will be the food in the cellar, or nothing will happen. In that case, the optimists will prevail.
PS: if anyone wonders why the mention of 1983, I suggest you read the story of Colonel Stanislav Petrov, the man who saved the world in 1983 by not reporting a missile launch from the USA which, in reality, was a satellite error. .
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The article There is a 10% chance that the world will end. So…. it would be logical to buy shares comes from ScenariEconomici.it .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/ce-il-10-delle-possibilita-che-il-mondo-finisca-quindi-sarebbe-logico-comprare-azioni/ on Sun, 06 Mar 2022 21:53:39 +0000.