Alitalia, here’s how much Ita will cost to the state
The 7.5 billion euros needed for the Ita operation in place of Alitalia are more than the market value at the current prices of Lufthansa and Air France-KLM. The analysis by Ugo Arrival, transport economist
On Alitalia and Ita a small calculation of certain interest for the taxpayer.
To do this, it is necessary to start from the public costs generated in 2008 by the downsizing of AZ. According to the well-known Mediobanca study of 2015, the public costs of staff downsizing amounted to 1.860 million, calculated by default on 4 thousand people. How many employees of #Alitalia will be who will not go to ITA?
Ita declared that it had received applications equal to just under three times the number of Alitalia employees who were 10,524 as of 31.12.20. They hire them in proportion to the questions they will get a thousand from AZ, hardly more than 1,500. Therefore 9 thousand are left out.
Of these 9 thousand I estimate that 1/3 will be able to find employment in the new handling and maintenance companies that will be created by the extraordinary administration. Therefore 6 thousand people are excluded. These 6,000 will need the social protection enjoyed by their colleagues after 2008. At the unit costs estimated by Mediobanca, the total public costs are estimated at 2.5 billion.
To the 2.5 billion social protection costs must be added the 3 billion allocated for Ita and the over 2 billion already spent in these 5 years of Alitalia's extraordinary administration. The total public costs therefore reach at least 7.5 billion euros.
7.5 billion in public costs to set up a carrier of only 52 aircraft that will have no more than 6% of the Italian air market?
7.5 billion in public costs for this operation are almost double the 4.1 billion that Mediobanca calculated as the public costs of the 'brave captains' operation in 2008.
What could be done alternatively with 7.5 billion?
For example, buy functioning airlines… Let's see how much they capitalized on the stock market as of yesterday. The Lufthansa group 4.6 billion, the value of the whole company according to the stock exchange (equity value); the Air France KLM group 2.5 billion; Easyjet 3.8 billion (3.2 billion pounds). Therefore, the 7.5 billion needed for the Ita operation instead of Alitalia are more than the market value at the current prices of Lufthansa and Air France-KLM, which together were worth only 7.1 billion yesterday …
This reasoning is very similar to the one made some time ago by Carlo Bonomi and taken up on Twitter by Andrea Giuricin. But back then, I think it was February, the two big carriers were worth more than now.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/smartcity/ita-alitalia-costi-pubblici/ on Fri, 10 Sep 2021 13:46:59 +0000.