Because Australia embraces America and abandons China. Fabbri’s analysis (Limes)
What changes in Europe after the French anti-US clamor and why Australia has decided to snub China. The in-depth analysis by Limes analyst, Dario Fabbri
In recent days, Australia has angered France. The subject of the dispute is Camberra's decision to terminate a contract for the supply of conventional submarines worth 90 million dollars. Australia has preferred to equip itself with nuclear-powered submarines of Anglo-Saxon manufacture .
The wrath of France
“The decision is only formally Australian – says Dario Fabbri , Limes analyst, in his weekly point -. It unleashed the wrath of France, which even drew ambassadors from Washington and Camberra and launched a request for greater strategic autonomy for Europe, and therefore for France ”.
The change of strategy and the weight of Washington
According to Fabbri, the American will weighed on the Australian decision, although the choice that, in 2016, led Camberra to choose the French supplier was "blessed" by two commissions led by American experts. The choice of France had seemed appropriate from a military and geopolitical point of view . But since 2016 many things have changed, first of all "the US maritime containment against the People's Republic of China has intensified, even around Australia which is one of the participants of QUAD, the security quadrilateral to which the USA, Japan belong , India and Australia ".
In 2020 India and Australia choose the US field
2020, the annus horribilis of the pandemic, was not such due to the geopolitical turning points in favor of the USA. In fact, in 2020, India officially passed into the US sphere of influence. “India from a historically non-aligned country has aligned itself with the USA – continues Fabbri -. But in 2020 Australia also clearly chose the USA and it was not a trivial choice. Indeed a choice that closely concerns Italy because a country dependent from a commercial point of view on China and starting from 2020 has chosen to move away from the People's Republic, damaging its economy for strategic reasons and unleashing the wrath of China and the government of Beijing ".
The containment of China by sea
The fact that Australia has chosen to nuke its submarine fleet, and the fact that the US and UK are actively involved in this effort, is an important technological and strategic development. "This movement is part of a broader maritime containment architecture of the US to the detriment of China – adds the Limes analyst -. The US is not very interested in containing China from the land in fact it has left Afghanistan (Afghanistan it borders China for 90 km) but they want to contain it and suffocate it from the sea, where they have a strong advantage ”.
The geopolitics of armaments
Acquiring a nuclear system or a military vehicle means getting closer to the manufacturer of the same. So "compared to 2016 what has changed is that French submarines were no longer enough". Buying a milestone technology means taking sides with the manufacturer in the event of a war . “France alone could not be enough in a dispute like this to shield Australia in the event of a conflict – continues Fabbri -. The US needs Australia to use its weapons to better participate in the containment of the People's Republic "
Are there two West?
In these hours in Europe we have heard about the existence of two Westerners, one American-led and one European. However, as Fabbri points out, there has been no stance in favor of France by any Western country, not even European. “ The only authorities to express themselves in favor of Paris were Ursula Von der Leyen and Charles Michel, the President of the European Council – specifies the geopolitics expert -. Even the initial idea on the part of the community authorities was to postpone a confrontation made in a summit with the USA in the technological field. A postponement from which the main European countries have slipped, siding with Washington. Since this postponement was a retaliation wanted by the French against the USA. Italy, Germany and Denmark did not accept the invitation from Paris ”. Therefore, we cannot speak of two Westerners but there is only one that remains linked to the USA and that follows its strategies especially in a match like the one against China. Regardless of putting France's feet.
The sentimental bond between France and the USA
France and the United States of America are two countries that are historically and mutually linked. “The quarrels between the French and the Americans are always quarrels of a sentimental nature – says Fabbri -. There are no countries linked by a sentimental bond more than the French and the Americans . They perceive themselves as twin nations, the US recognizes that France has the same character as the American universalist cultural figure, while France looks to the US as a great France that has made it ”.
The American compensation against France
According to Fabbri, the solution to the dispute between the US and France will be found on the one hand in a generous military order and on the other in American support for the most expensive files in Paris. “On Wednesday Joe Biden and Emmanuel Macron spoke on the phone and issued a joint statement – concludes Fabbri -. Inside is an explicit promise from the American administration announcing concrete aid in the Sahel in favor of Paris . This is simply the classic back and forth in the relationship between France and the US ”.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/perche-laustralia-abbraccia-lamerica-e-abbandona-la-cina-lanalisi-di-fabbri-limes/ on Sun, 26 Sep 2021 07:07:26 +0000.