I’ll tell you what Turkey and Russia are doing in Libya
The article by Tino Oldani for Italy Today
Oil, migrants, public works. For decades, these are the issues at the top of the agenda of relations between Italy and Libya. And Mario Draghi, knowing its importance, it is no coincidence that he decided to make his first trip abroad in Libya as prime minister. It was April 6, and after the meeting with the Libyan premier, Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, he declared himself very satisfied with the collaboration in the planning field on these issues, adding: "There is the desire to bring economic and cultural exchange back to levels of 5-6 years ago ». Purpose reaffirmed by the Libyan premier when, on May 31, he met Draghi in Rome, accompanied by seven ministers, with whom he participated in a forum organized by the Farnesina on the industrial partnership and the reconstruction of Libya, which was attended by representatives of thirty Italian industrial groups.
Those were days of optimism. The government of Dbeibah, a rich industrialist from Misrata, had been installed for a month under the aegis of the UN, after long negotiations promoted by Angela Merkel in Berlin. The goal, to establish a unitary government, was achieved and sanctioned the end of hostilities between the two Libyan sides that had made war: General Khalifa Haftar's Cyrenaica to the east, Fayez al Sarraj's Tripolitania to the west. Under the Berlin agreements, the Dbeibah government was born as a provisional one, with the task of initiating reconstruction and leading Libya to elections, set for December 24th. But what, in April and May, seemed like a downhill road, soon turned out to be a path full of obstacles, both local and international. With repeated twists.
The last one took place the other Wednesday, when the parliament of Tobruk (city of Cyrenaica) dished out the national unity government of Dbeibah with 89 votes in favor out of 113 present in the classroom. All in a closed-door session, where the president of parliament, Aguila Saleh, a former magistrate, led the dances in person to discourage the premier, whom he considers a political rival to be put out of action in view of the elections in December. In response, Dbeibah declared that he considered the vote of no confidence invalid, as the provisional constitution requires two thirds of the votes of the parliament (125) to dishearten the government, while Saleh considered the parliamentary regulation, which provides for 50, to be sufficient. % plus one of the voters.
The divisions between the two don't end there. According to the rules established by the Political Dialogue Forum, made up of 74 members after the Berlin accords, the interim Libyan authorities, led by Dbeibah and Saleh, could not stand as candidates in the next elections. A ban that the two rivals have declared from the beginning that they do not want to respect, both aiming at the presidency of Libya and at the helm of the next government. Hence a series of low blows, especially from Saleh. First he convinced parliament not to approve the budget law proposed by the premier, reducing his spending items. Then, on 8 September, he even enacted an electoral law that was never voted on by Parliament, but written directly from its offices. Law immediately challenged by the Council of State of Tripoli, a sort of Libyan senate, which considers the enactment of the electoral law to be within its competence.
In this institutional chaos, as was to be expected, the only point of agreement is that the electoral law proposed by Saleh makes waste of the rules of the Forum of Dialogue and allows both him and his rival Dbeibah to run for president, with the victory in the first round for those who take 50% plus one of the votes, otherwise it will go to the ballot between the first two. Basically, a new clash between Cyrenaica and Tripolitania, this time not with weapons, but with the popular vote. Which, if it happens, would be a positive turning point not only for Libya, but also for Italy and for the cooperation projects agreed by Draghi.
There are several factors that make this turnaround complicated. Not only the probable postponement of the elections of 24 December, due to the deep internal divisions in Libya. But also the power plots of Russia and Turkey, which after taking part in the war between Cyrenaica and Tripolitania, have installed their military apparatuses in the two regions, and do not want to leave. In fact, they are the real masters on the ground: to the east the Russian mercenaries of the Wagner Group, sent by Vladimir Putin in support of Haftar; to the west, the Turkish and Syrian soldiers of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, decisive results in the military victory of al Sarraj, which put an end to the fighting, but not to the deepest political and tribal divisions.
The strong instability caused by these divisions offered Emmanuel Macron the opportunity to return to the scene, after he had sided with Haftar and against al Sarraj, consequently against Italy, which supported the prime minister of Tripoli. with the UN endorsement. The French president, taking advantage of the absence of Germany, engaged in the post-Merkel elections, has in fact convened an international conference on Libya for 12 November. This took place while the UN assembly was underway and the foreign ministers of France, Germany and Italy met precisely for a common examination of the situation in Libya. It is not clear whether, before the announcement of the international conference, Macron had talked about it with Italy.
Certainly, once again try to make it to the top of the class, at the expense of our country. This is more than enough reason for Rome not to give in to the French request to sign that Quirinal Pact, which is talked about so much while ignoring the text, while Macron's behavior on Libya is anything but friendly and transparent.
Article published on ItaliaOggi
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/vi-racconto-cosa-fanno-turchia-e-russia-in-libia/ on Sun, 26 Sep 2021 05:12:25 +0000.