Because labor policies in Italy are on the high seas
The latest data on employment, government moves, trade unions positions and scenarios analyzed by Claudio Negro of the Kuliscioff foundation
Figures to understand those of Istat on employment in July, if compared with other econometric data. Employment in July slightly declined, for the first time in 6 months (-23,000 units), due entirely to the decline in self-employed workers. However, it should be noted that the very slight increase in employees, which partially compensates for the decline in the self-employed, shows a sudden "freeze" in the growth of fixed-term contracts after 6 months of substantial growth. The number of inactive people is increasing and, consequently, the unemployment rate is falling.
But, confirming the negative climate anticipated by the stop of forward contracts, the PMI index falls (purchasing expectations for the manufacturing sector) and above all and above all industrial production falls by 0.7% (certainly "driven" by the decline in 1.3% of Germany).
It must be said that the PMI indices for August indicate an expectation of a recovery in orders (driven by exports) and a forecast of increasing employment, but in the longer term it is likely that the bottleneck in the international semiconductor market will slow growth. of manufacturing, with an inevitable slowdown at least in employment growth. The Excelsior Unioncamere Observatory also reports 100,000 fewer manpower searches for the August-October quarter than the July-September forecast. And this gross of 30% and more than expected of mismatch. A forecast that indicates a slight decline in expected recruitment in the services sector, which can be expected after the tourist season.
Another figure to be taken into consideration is that of the Redundancy Fund: in June the CIG attributable to Covid actually used corresponded to approximately 600,000 ULA (Annual Work Units), therefore, assuming a continuity with respect to the trend of the first quarter, to approximately 1,000. 000 of workers in flesh and blood, of which between 400 and 500 thousand at zero hours. The hours authorized in July were half of those of those authorized on average in the previous 6 months, which captures the partial recovery of the tourism-hotel-restaurant sector on the occasion of the summer reopening, but also gives the signal of a well-established trend towards decrease in the recourse to the CIG which, even if after August it could increase again in relation to manufacturing difficulties, should remain below the levels of the beginning of the year.
The fact remains that the 4-500 thousand workers who despite the recovery seen so far are still in the CIG with zero hours will have problems, without adequate assistance, to re-enter the labor market. After all, the termination of the ban on dismissal in June for major companies, even if it did not have devastating effects (net of situations of media interest but of marginal concrete impact), however, led to more than double the number of Unemployment Benefits (NASPI ) paid (+101,000).
And these were terminations essentially linked to industrial sectors. As we have been saying for some time, it is foreseeable that after October (the end of the ban on dismissal for smaller companies) the number of job seekers will increase rapidly and significantly, and most of them will be people with modest professional profiles, who will need services to I work to be relocated.
However, there seems to be little awareness of this reality: Minister Orlando's project for Active Labor Policies is very much in its initial state, from which a pragmatic approach does not seem to emerge and intended to use concretely existing tools and skills but rather the aspiration to an epochal re-foundation of the public system of the former Employment and Vocational Training Offices.
The Syndicate, for its part, gives signs of wanting Linus' blanket: UIL has already asked for the extension of the CIG Covid and the ban on dismissal until 31 December; expect CGIL and CISL.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/economia/perche-sono-in-alto-mare-le-politiche-del-lavoro/ on Sun, 05 Sep 2021 05:34:13 +0000.