Because Putin’s Russia will not be able to do without the Wagner Brigade. This is General Jean
The future of Russia and Putin after the near-coup of the Wagner Brigade. Prigozhin's role. The power struggle at the top of the Moscow military. And the nuclear issue. Conversation with General Carlo Jean
What really happened in Russia two days ago with Prigozhin 's coup? Was it a full blown coup or something else? And in the event of a power vacuum, what would happen to the world's largest nuclear arsenal?
Here are some of the questions posed to General Carlo Jean, an esteemed analyst of international politics and author of essays such as "Geopolitics of the XXI century" and "War, strategy and security".
What happened in Russia between June 23 and 24?
Most likely Prigozhin's move had already been prepared beforehand, so much so that US intelligence was aware of it and a week ago had warned the various Western governments. This is a coup in support of Prigozhin's arguments that Defense Minister Shoigu and Chief of Staff Gerasimov are to blame for the failures of the war in Ukraine.
So not a real coup d'état, but an action aimed at the defense apparatuses?
This is difficult to say, because if Prigozhin moved, he surely had to have some support. Among other things, among the military leaders there are major divisions and conflicts between the various personalities that Prigozhin presumably wanted to take advantage of. And then probably there will have been some external support from actors who hoped to be able to replace the current Putin regime. The profile of these subjects can be indirectly imagined starting from the statements of Prigozhin who criticizes the reasons and motives for which Russia attacked Ukraine, arguing that the special military operation was aimed above all at satisfying the material interest of some oligarchs and members of Putin's magic circle.
In both national and international media there has been more than a few who have celebrated the end of the Putin regime. Do you find this emphasis justified?
I would say absolutely not. Putin will try to rebuild the command and control system he had before. Most likely he will rely on the security services and in particular on the domestic one, which seems to have played a determining role together with the military one, i.e. the GRU, in cutting the grass under Prigozhin's feet.
Even if the coup had only been half successful, and a power vacuum had resulted, one wonders what would have happened to the famous nuclear briefcases.
This is the most delicate aspect of the matter. It is presumable that in those circumstances the USA, the whole of the West and even China would intervene in support of the party that will prevail so that it quickly takes power and therefore control of nuclear weapons. Let's say that the scenario to be avoided is that of a civil war which would make such control practically impossible.
Is Prigozhin finished in your opinion?
I don't think so at all. Prigozhin finds himself in an iron barrel, as Wagner is essential to Russian foreign policy in the Middle East, Africa and Latin America. Putin cannot do without it, as without Wagner Russia's international influence would collapse. It should also be taken into account that the company is the only one in Ukraine that has achieved strategic successes also from the point of view of communication. This explains the fact that in Rostov-on-Don, Russia, the mercenaries were welcomed to the cheers of the residents.
More than a few are now claiming that Russian military operations in Ukraine are compromised. It is true?
Personally I would be more cautious. The Ukrainians, who were probably taken by surprise, took advantage of the situation to carry out some attacks. However, I believe that, after the recomposition of the political framework in Russia, we will return to the previous situation from a military point of view, that is, to a series of inconclusive attacks by the Ukrainians which will meet very strong resistance by the Russians.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/perche-la-russia-di-putin-non-potra-fare-a-meno-della-brigata-wagner-parla-il-generale-jean/ on Mon, 26 Jun 2023 06:24:13 +0000.