Because support for the EU Commission’s ideological Green Deal is crumbling

16 July 202311 months ago babelfish

The Green Deal is one of the most heated points of confrontation in European policies. Is ecological ideology costing the left its voters? Chicco Testa's analysis for il Foglio

As was largely predictable, the green deal has become one of the most heated points of confrontation in European policies. Up to bringing the Popolari out of the majority Ursula , who narrowly saved herself in the vote a few days ago on the renaturalization program. But with a wound that is difficult to heal. The right has been provided with decent opportunities to unleash the attack with at least two arguments. The costs that the European transition implies for families and businesses; the centralist and ultra-prescriptive nature of many of these measures which rest on an intrusive and excessive European sovereignty. Obviously no suggestions.

On the other hand, a different, but equally inconclusive, ideological populism which preaches the imminent catastrophe and therefore the need not to retreat an inch. Indeed accelerate accelerate accelerate. Positioning that is not only of the most extreme environmental groups, including the despoilers of monuments, but also of various intellectuals and politicians variously oriented to the left. The political climate heats up and the merits of the issues risk being completely overlooked. With all due respect to the possible solutions.

Three facts. Since the discussion on the need to reduce greenhouse gases began in the early 1990s, they have continued to grow year on year. Not only that: their growth speed has increased. A little more every year, with the exception of the period of the financial crisis (2008) and the two-year period of Covid. Where we've experienced degrowth unhappy enough for it to suffice. But already in 2022 the historic peak of new issues was reached.

Second: growing coal consumption in 2022 exceeded 8 billion tons consumed for the first time. Third: oil consumption will most likely break through the ceiling of 100 million barrels per day this year (!). Quite the opposite, it seems to me a failure of a narrative that would seem to give the unstoppable growth of renewable sources as the winner. Which also happens, but within defined boundaries. For two reasons. Between 80 and 90% of all energy (primary energy) consumed in the world is met by fossil fuels. Slowly, very slowly, their percentage of the total is reduced by a few points. But a total that is getting bigger and bigger, because energy consumption keeps growing. So even a smaller percentage means larger quantities of oil, coal, gas. Electric renewables insist only on the share of electricity which is on average 20% of total energy consumption. It is also mostly produced with fossil fuels, above all coal and gas.

But there is a second even more substantial reason to understand why the world is going as it is and not as we would like it to go. It is the immense need for energy that a large part of the world still needs, the one in which 4/5 of humanity will live in a few years. If the United States has a per capita consumption of 75,000 kWh (using the kWh as the all-encompassing unit of energy) Africa stands at 4,000. Much of Asia and Latin America are around 10,000. They want to grow, they grow, and to grow further they need energy. And the easiest and cheapest way to do this is to use fossil fuels, which ensure energy density, continuity, availability and low costs.

To make the reasoning clearer let's look at what happened in China which stands out in Asia for the incredible development it has had in recent decades. From 2000 to 2020, China quadrupled its energy consumption and with this it conquered the primacy of the world's first emitter. But it has lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. India and the rest of Asia would like to replicate this success story. With what consequences on global emissions it is easy to imagine. But who can forbid it? More and more leaders in this part of the world are accusing Europe of environmental neo-colonialism”. You want to condemn us to eternal poverty, preventing us from using oil and coal, while you have polluted the world with your emissions".

So let's go back to Europe and to the opposing populisms, demagoguery versus ideology, which confront each other. Europe with its green transition would like to save the world and save itself. As we have seen, the world travels on other wavelengths and it is certainly not Europe with its 8/9% of total emissions that can make the difference. But supporters of the chosen path use another argument. The transition can build another development model in Europe capable of ensuring growth, innovation and employment. An opportunity not to be missed. There is some truth, apart from the unfortunate and vaguely jinxed use of the expression "development model", but only if these indications are implemented with a little wisdom and the necessary gradualness. Since we won't be the ones to save the world, let's try to make our contribution also by looking at our own interests. Meanwhile, all the proposals put forward by the EU lack in-depth studies on the economic consequences. Unbelievable but true. The various dossiers almost never present exhaustive analyses. In fact, they often aren't there. And when there are, they are drawn up by compliant companies that almost never get it right, since they say what the Commission wants to hear. A bit like in Italy with the studies on the benefits of the super bonus 110 commissioned by the builders and proven wrong by the MEF.

There are certainly promising fields, development of renewables for example, at least partial recovery of the gap on batteries and electric cars, efficiency improvements in buildings. But times and ways are not secondary. Demand to look to Italy that millions of buildings are made more efficient in a few years or that the good recycling practices obtained in Italy are distorted (we are the first recyclers in Europe) to modify all the regulations on packaging with little benefit. Or attack European agriculture frontally by imposing impossible standards in the use of plant protection products and pesticides. Pure economic and political self-harm. The future of the automotive industry deserves a separate discussion.

For the moment, let's just observe that the battery market is firmly in Chinese hands and that imports of electric cars from China are increasing. According to TERNA data, in order to achieve the objectives set by the EU for 2030, Italy would have to register 8 million "full electric" cars plus a couple of million plug-ins by 2030. Last year, 1,300 were registered in Italy. 000 cars in total with less than 50,000 full electric. But does anyone in Brussels know how to do the math? What to do then? Perhaps the Commission should slow down rather than speed up headlong. As requested, for example, by the French President Macron, frightened by the idea of having to deal with French farmers and homeowners after the yellow vests. How to say an open highway to the right. Slow down to tune into the world.

Transitioning is serious business. However you think, there is no need to evoke the end of the world every two minutes, a cleaner world is for everyone and being able to have balanced economic growth is a good goal. Billions and billions of dollars and euros are invested every year in researching those technological leaps that have changed and will change the world. It will be a long race and it will probably last not a few decades but much longer if it wants to go beyond the limited traffic area of the world, but to be global. A necessary condition. Punishing ourselves with absurd prescriptions of all kinds and by imposing unattainable goals only serves to discredit this immense effort. Using reason and a little optimism we save the transition from opposing populisms. From demagoguery and ideology.

(Excerpt from an article published in Il Foglio; here the complete version)

This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/energia/green-deal-elezioni-europee-2024/ on Sun, 16 Jul 2023 06:07:40 +0000.