Contagions, tampons and intensive care: Covid numbers in Italy. Gimbe Report

22 October 20204 years ago babelfish

How is the Covid-19 pandemic going in Italy? The numbers of the Gimbe foundation and Cartabellotta's comment

"We cannot continue to chase the virus based on the numbers of the day that reflect the infections of 15 days before, but we must look at the projection of the curves at 2 weeks to immediately decide on targeted lockdowns, any local red zones and much more stringent restrictive measures" .

This is the wish of Nino Cartabellotta, President of the Gimbe Foundation , on the basis of the latest report developed on the updated numbers of the pandemic in Italy.

Here is the note from the foundation.

The independent monitoring of the Gimbe Foundation detects in the week 14-20 October, compared to the previous one, an exponential increase in the trend of new cases (68,982 vs 35,204) against a significant increase in the cases tested (630,929 vs 505,940) and a further net increase in the positive / case ratio (10.9% vs 7%). From an epidemiological point of view, currently positive cases are growing (142,739 vs 87,193) and, on the hospital front, there is a surge in patients hospitalized with symptoms (8,454 vs 5,076) and in intensive care (870 vs 514). Deaths more than doubled (459 vs 216).

In detail, compared to the previous week, the following changes were recorded:

Deaths: 243 (+ 112.5%)
Intensive care: +356 (+ 69.3%)
Hospitalized with symptoms: +3,378 (+ 66.5%)
New cases: 33,778 (+ 95.9%)
Currently positive cases: +55,546 (+ 63.7%)
Cases tested +124,989 (+ 24.7%)
Total buffers: +202.871 (+ 24.8%)

"With the dizzying increase in numbers – explains Nino Cartabellotta, President of the Gimbe Foundation – the national data does not account for marked regional differences, as well as provincial ones, which indicate the areas that require more restrictive measures to promptly limit all the outbreaks and stem the widespread contagion ". The main indicators report documents a worsening in all regions on all fronts, except for the modest increase in the cases tested (table).

New cases. There were 33,778 new cases, almost double the previous week (Figure 1). At the national level, the percentage increase of total cases is 18.9%, with regional variations ranging from 7.8% in the Autonomous Province of Trento to 44.9% in Campania.

Cases tested. Even in terms of testing & tracing capacity, regional performances are highly variable: compared to a national average of 1,045 cases tested per 100,000 inhabitants, the number varies from 561 in the Autonomous Province of Trento to 1,832 in Lazio. "The most alarming figure – explains the President – is the sharp rise in the positive / case tested ratio from 7% to 10.9%, which certifies the failure of the testing & tracing system to stem the spread of infections". The considerable regional variability documents that the “first dam” has definitely been lost in some Regions: for example, in Valle d'Aosta more than one case tested out of 3 is positive and in Liguria almost 1 in 4 (figure 2).

«In this phase of rapid rise in infections – explains Cartabellotta – rather than counting the numbers of the day, it is essential to follow the dynamics of the curves on a weekly basis. In fact, from October 6, the trend of currently positive cases, of patients hospitalized with symptoms and of those in intensive care, is soaring, followed a week later by that of deaths ". In other words, even if the order of magnitude changes in terms of absolute numbers, the trend of all the curves is now very similar (Figure 3). In detail:

Currently positive cases. The doubling of new cases in the last two weeks has significantly expanded the pool of currently positive cases which have reached the number of 142,739. As of 13 October, compared to a national average of 236 currently positive cases per 100,000 inhabitants, the range varies from 64 in Calabria to 577 in Valle D'Aosta.

Hospitalization and intensive care. Also in terms of hospitalizations, the trend has become exponential: in the week 14-20 October, patients hospitalized with symptoms increased by 66.5% (+3,378) and those in intensive care by 69.3% (+356), with a constant ratio of 10: 1.

Deaths. After a slowly but steadily increasing trend, in the last week the deceased patients have more than doubled, going from 216 to 459, with a growth trend that is in line with that of hospitalized and intensive care patients.

The data confirm that the tracking systems have already failed in most of the national territory and now the primary objective is to prevent the overload of hospitals and intensive care units, in order to contain the increase in lethality.

«The alternation of DPCM on a weekly basis – concludes Cartabellotta – and the parallel introduction of further measures in some Regions, from curfews to the closure of shopping centers on weekends, show however that politics does not have a real strategy to contain the second wave. If, as reported by Prime Minister Conte in Parliament, the goal is to protect both health and the economy, the Government, Regions and Local Bodies must take note that the virus is always running faster than their decisions. We cannot continue to chase it based on the numbers of the day that reflect the infections of 15 days before, but we must look at the projection of the curves at 2 weeks to immediately decide on targeted lockdowns, any local red zones and much more stringent restrictive measures ".

This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/sanita/contagi-tamponi-e-terapie-intensive-i-numeri-covid-in-italia-report-gimbe/ on Thu, 22 Oct 2020 14:10:58 +0000.