Covid, as it goes in France, Germany, the UK and Spain
Gianfranco Polillo's point on Covid not only in Italy.
More than a virus, Covid-19 looks more and more like a video game monster. Those you kill, but soon after are reborn stronger and more aggressive than before. It was the British secretary of health, Matt Hancock, who announced that a new gene had been discovered: a variant of Sars-Cov-2 that could be responsible for a faster spread of the infection, in many areas of the country. The new monster has already manifested itself in 60 locations in the south east of England, immediately transformed into the red zone. To then reach the heart of London itself. Back in lockdown. These are the words of the minister: "In recent days, thanks to the world-class genomic capacity in the United Kingdom, we have identified a new variant of Sars-CoV-2 that could be associated with the faster spread of the virus in our country". Legitimate concern. In the previous days, Great Britain had had a slightly higher number of infections than Italy. But the latest figures indicate that the relative difference has further increased.
In an attempt to reassure public opinion, the minister then added: "I must emphasize at this point that there is currently nothing to suggest that this variant is more likely to cause serious illness and the last clinical advice is that it is highly It is unlikely that this mutation will not respond to a vaccine. At the same time, it shows how we must continue to be vigilant and follow the rules. Everyone must take personal responsibility not to spread this virus ”. Obvious recommendation. The WHO immediately tried to throw water on the fire: At the moment "there is no evidence" said Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, in the usual WHO briefing on Covid-19, that the English virus "behaves differently". The new variant, he explained, "is already being monitored by the Virus Evolution Working Group in the context of the various virus mutations discovered in mink in different parts of the world."
It will certainly be so. However, a series of clues must make us think. Angela Merkel, after a passionate speech, managed to impose the lockdown on her country: from Wednesday 16 December until at least next 10 January. Closed shops, as well as schools. Ban on drinking alcohol in public and on selling fireworks, to avoid New Year's celebrations. Restricted meetings to a maximum of 5 people belonging to two families (excluding children under 14). The only exception is on Christmas Eve, when the shirts will widen, but only slightly. Each family can invite up to a maximum of 4 relatives.
Narrow also in Holland, after one of the rare televised speeches by Prime Minister Mark Rutte. Which is certainly not Giuseppe Conte. Schools and non-essential activities will be closed from Wednesday 16 December to 19 January. Instead, banks and some health services will remain open. On January 12, a new appointment to see if it will be possible to open after a week or to extend the restrictive provisions.
In France the curfew continues: bars and restaurants still closed. Along with theaters, cinemas and museums. Prohibition to leave the house from 20 to 6 in the morning. The only partial liberalization on Christmas Eve, but immediately afterwards the harsh regime is back, with the promise of employing over 100,000 agents to ban end-of-year parties. But more or less the same restrictions will apply in Spain, Belgium and Switzerland. While in the US, some large cities, starting with New York, suffer limitations that are unthinkable – such as those of not allowing the consumption of food in the internal halls of restaurants – for the culture of that country.
In all these cases the alarm arises from the resurgence. In countries that have decided or are deciding, as in Italy, the crackdown, in just over a month, the number of infections has increased on average by 8.5 percent and deaths by 9.1. Germany appears to be the most affected. Not only does the downward trend of the previous months seem to have reversed, but the respective rates of increase (infections and deaths) were equal to 13.6 and even 19.2 percent. Data that amply justified Angela Merkel's concerns in her speech at the Bundenstag. Immediately after Switzerland, where the number of infections increased by 11.6 and that of deaths by 15. The United States, in turn, has an almost similar rate of increase in infections (11.9 percent), but a much lower number of deaths: 6.4 per cent.
Great Britain, Spain and France are doing slightly better. In the three countries, the rate of increase is less than half of the overall averages. However, they present patchy situations, with an asymmetrical concentration, which proves to be particularly dangerous. In some cases, such as in Great Britain, the lethality rate has even decreased slightly, albeit by a modest 0.2 percent. It would seem, therefore, that at the moment the virus, although it spreads faster, is less lethal. But all of this requires further analysis and verification.
Among those cited, the case of Germany, as already mentioned, is the most worrying one. But if Berlin cries, Rome doesn't laugh. In Italy, infections increased by 7.3, deaths by 8.2. Values that are slightly lower than the arithmetic means. But that's a minor relief. The number of deaths, as a percentage, grows more than the number of infections, compared to the same trend in other countries. A sign that the lethality of the virus could be greater. As is known, for Johns Hopkins University , its average value remains fixed at 3.5 per cent: in third place after Mexico and Iran. But this index reflects the entire course of the pandemic.
To decrypt its dynamics, we recalculated it month by month, using data from the Civil Protection. In the first four months (from the end of February to May) the index jumped from 3.1 to 20.3 percent. The line of army trucks carrying the coffins to cremation. From that month a decline began, at first slow, then more and more consistent, reaching the lowest point in October, with an index equal to 0.7 per cent. But already the following month the curve reverses, to reach a value of 3.7 percent in recent days. It is good not to joke.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/covid-come-va-in-francia-germania-regno-unito-e-spagna/ on Wed, 16 Dec 2020 06:40:26 +0000.