Covid will heat the solar. Aie report
Solar will be the new king of electricity markets. Facts, numbers and scenarios in the World Energy Outlook 2020 Aie
“I see solar becoming the new king of the world's electricity markets. Based on current policy, it is on track to set new circulation records every year after 2022, ”said Fatih Birol, IEA Executive Director. "If governments and investors step up their clean energy efforts in line with our Sustainable Development Scenario, the growth of both solar and wind will be even more spectacular – and extremely encouraging to overcome the global climate challenge." .
Birol spoke illustrating the World Energy Outlook 2020, the flagship publication of the International Energy Agency.
THE WORDS OF BIROL
“It's been a rough year for the global energy system. The Covid-19 crisis has caused more unrest than any other event in recent history, leaving scars that will last for years to come. But whether this upheaval ultimately helps or hinders efforts to accelerate clean energy transitions and meet international energy and climate goals will depend on how governments respond to today's challenges. " This is what the World Energy Outlook 2020, the flagship publication of the International Energy Agency, highlights, focuses on the crucial period of the next 10 years, exploring different paths to exit the crisis.
The new report provides the IEA's latest analysis on the impact of the pandemic: global energy demand is set to decline by 5% in 2020, energy-related CO2 emissions by 7% and energy investments by 18% . With a consolidated approach, that of facing and comparing different scenarios that show how the energy sector could develop.
THE SCENARIOS
The Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), in which Covid-19 is gradually brought under control in 2021 and the global economy returns to pre-crisis levels in the same year. This scenario reflects all the intentions and political objectives announced today, insofar as they are supported by detailed measures for their realization.
The Delayed Recovery Scenario (DRS) was designed with the same policy assumptions as in the STEPS, but a prolonged pandemic causes lasting damage to the economic outlook. The global economy returns to its pre-crisis dimensions only in 2023, and the pandemic ushers in a decade with the lowest rate of growth in energy demand since the 1930s.
In the Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS), a surge in clean energy policies and investments puts the energy system on the right track to fully achieve sustainable energy goals, including the Paris Agreement, access to energy and targets of air quality. The assumptions about public health and the economy are the same as those of the STEPS.
The new Net Zero Emissions by 2050 case (NZE2050) extends the analysis of the SDS. An increasing number of countries and companies are aiming for net zero emissions, typically by mid-century. All of these goals have been met in the SDS, putting global emissions on the path to net zero by 2070. The NZE2050 includes the IEA's first detailed modeling of what would be needed over the next decade to put global CO2 emissions on the road of net zero by 2050.
PRE-CRISIS LEVELS BY 2023 OR 2025
“In the Stated Policies Scenario, which reflects the intentions and policy goals announced today, global energy demand returns to pre-crisis level in early 2023. However, this will not happen until 2025 in the event of a protracted pandemic and a deeper collapse, as shown in the Delayed Recovery Scenario. Slower growth in demand lowers the outlook for oil and gas prices compared to pre-crisis trends. But the sharp drops in investments increase the risk of future market volatility ”, highlighted Aie.
“Renewables play a leading role in all scenarios, with solar at the center of attention. Support policies and maturing technologies allow very cheap access to capital in leading markets – underlined the International Energy Agency -. Solar PV is now consistently cheaper than new coal or gas power plants in most countries, and solar projects now offer some of the lowest electricity costs ever. In the Stated Policies Scenario, renewables meet 80% of the growth in global electricity demand over the next decade. Hydropower remains the largest renewable source, but solar is the main source of growth, followed by onshore and offshore wind ”.
BIROL: THE NEW SOLAR KING OF WORLD MARKETS
“I see solar becoming the new king of the world's electricity markets. Based on current policy, it is on track to set new circulation records every year after 2022, ”said Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the IEA. "If governments and investors step up their clean energy efforts in line with our Sustainable Development Scenario, the growth of both solar and wind will be even more spectacular – and extremely encouraging to overcome the global climate challenge." .
WEO-2020 demonstrates that strong growth in renewable energy must be accompanied by strong investments in power grids. Without sufficient investment, grids will prove to be the weak link in the transformation of the energy sector, with implications for the reliability and security of electricity supply.
THE CHALLENGES OF FOSSIL FUELS
“Fossil fuels face different challenges. Demand for coal does not return to pre-crisis levels in the Stated Policies Scenario, with its share of the 2040 energy mix falling below 20% for the first time since the Industrial Revolution. But demand for natural gas is growing significantly, especially in Asia, while oil remains vulnerable to the greater economic uncertainties resulting from the pandemic, ”the report reads.
“The era of growth in global oil demand will end in the next decade – said Birol -. But without a major shift in government policies, there is no sign of a rapid decline. Based on today's policies, a rebound in the global economy would soon bring oil demand back to pre-crisis levels ”.
THE EFFECTS OF THE PANDEMIC ON THE MOST VULNERABLE COUNTRIES
“The worst effects of the crisis will be felt among the most vulnerable countries. The pandemic has nullified the benefit of several years of falling numbers of people in sub-Saharan Africa who lack access to electricity. And an increase in poverty levels may have made basic electricity services inaccessible to more than 100 million people around the world who had access to electricity – reads the AIE report -. Global emissions are set to rebound slower than during the 2008-2009 financial crisis, but the world is still a long way from a sustainable recovery. A radical shift in clean energy investments offers a way to stimulate economic growth, create jobs and reduce emissions. This approach has not yet played a major role in the plans proposed so far, except in the European Union, the United Kingdom, Canada, Korea, New Zealand and a handful of other countries ”.
“In the Sustainable Development Scenario, which shows how to put the world on the right path to fully achieve sustainable energy goals, the full implementation of the IEA Sustainable Recovery Plan shifts the global energy economy onto a different post-crisis path. In addition to the rapid growth of solar, wind and energy efficiency technologies, the next 10 years should see a significant increase in hydrogen and carbon capture, use and storage technology and a new momentum for nuclear energy, ”notes Aie.
BIROL: THE WORLD LONG SINCE HAVING UNDERTAKEN A PATH OF DECLINE IN EMISSIONS
“Despite the record drop in global emissions this year, the world is far from having done enough to put them in a decisive decline. The economic downturn has temporarily suppressed emissions, but low economic growth is not a low-carbon strategy – it is a strategy that only serves to further impoverish the world's most vulnerable populations, Birol admitted. Only faster structural changes in the way we produce and consume energy can permanently break the emissions trend. Governments have the capacity and responsibility to take decisive action to accelerate clean energy transitions and put the world on the path to achieving our climate goals, including net zero emissions. "
A significant part of these efforts should focus on reducing emissions from existing energy infrastructures – such as coal-fired plants, steel mills and cement plants. Otherwise, international climate goals will be pushed out of reach, regardless of actions in other areas. "A new detailed analysis in WEO-2020 shows that if today's energy infrastructures continue to function as they have done so far, the temperature rise to 1.65 degrees would already be blocked – admits AIE -.
Despite these great challenges, the vision of a world with net zero emissions is becoming more and more widespread. The ambitious path outlined in the Sustainable Development Scenario is based on the fact that countries and companies reach the announced zero net emissions targets in time and in full, bringing the world to zero by 2070 ”.
“Reaching that point two decades earlier, as in the new case of Net Zero Emissions by 2050, would require a series of drastic additional actions over the next 10 years. To reduce emissions by around 40% by 2030, for example, low-emission sources need to provide nearly 75% of global electricity production in 2030, compared to less than 40% in 2019 – and more than 50 % of cars sold worldwide in 2030 are electric, up from 2.5% in 2019. Electrification, innovation, behavior changes and massive increases in efficiency would all play a role. No part of the energy economy could be left behind, as another is unlikely to be able to move fast enough to make a difference, ”the Aie report concluded.
Article published on Energia Oltre.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/energia/covid-scaldera-il-solare-report-aie/ on Wed, 14 Oct 2020 08:00:13 +0000.