Electric cars, China first buffers then will overtake the automotive West
In 2022, the Dragon captured 60% of the battery-powered car market and by 2025, up to 800,000 Chinese-made cars, most of them electric, could be imported into Europe. Facts, numbers and insights
Only a few months ago we explained how the invasion of Chinese electric cars that Beijing is preparing down to the smallest detail will come from the sea . An invasion that is now silent, but in fact has already begun, as certified by the Global Electric Vehicle Outlook 2023 drawn up by the International Energy Agency (IEA), an intergovernmental body founded by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). in 1974, shortly after the oil crisis.
THE MOVES OF THE DRAGON
We know that although the EU has chosen to bind itself to the ban on endothermic engines, China is the country that has so far invested with the greatest conviction in the development of electric cars, adulterating the internal market with very generous incentives ( just completed ) so as to keep demand high and encourage manufacturers to invest. A strategy that has already worked: the report confirms that "the vast majority of electric car sales have so far been concentrated mainly in three markets: China, Europe and the United States". The country of the Dragon has already grabbed a 60% share in 2022 and "more than half of all electric vehicles in circulation worldwide". Beijing has already exceeded its 2025 targets. Europe and the United States are lagging behind, despite increases of 15% and 55% respectively, and penetration at 18% and 8%.
FROM CHINA TO THE WEST, ELECTRIC CARS ARE COMING
The fact that China has a thriving car market and has hoarded mines and rare earths essential for batteries, combined with old themes related to the cost of labor and the absence or near absence of protection for the worker, will ensure that the Chinese electric cars that will whiz around the West may not be the most beautiful or the best performing, but they are undoubtedly the cheapest.
And, we know it well, on average electric cars cost more than those with endothermic traction. An all-Western problem though. For example, the new Byd Seagull was just presented at the 2023 Shanghai Motor Show, which will be sold in China starting from 80,000 yuan, i.e. approximately 10,700 euros. And despite the "mini" price, the performance will be respectable, probably thanks to the 30 or 38 kWh sodium batteries and 75 and 102 horsepower engines for a maximum range of 405 kilometers according to the Chinese homologation cycle
WILL THE CAR MARKET SPEAK CHINESE?
Up to 800,000 Chinese-made cars could be imported into Europe by 2025, most of them electric, according to a recent study by analyst firm PwC. If the model developed by the analysts were confirmed, Europe would in fact become an importer of cars, with an import surplus of over 221,000 vehicles in 2025. According to the latest trade data, in 2015, the European export surplus was around 1.7 million vehicles, having narrowed to around 76,000 units in 2022.
Electric cars made in China are expected in Europe with brands such as Byd, Wey, Ora (both of Great Wall Motors), Aiways, Dongfeng Motors (Renault's historical partner for the production of the Dacia Spring) through the Voyah brand and Chery, which in up until now, our country was present with the brand of Dr Automobili from Molise, while now it will run alone.
This does not mean that Western brands will disappear. Not soon, at least. Of the 800,000 future cars built in China, around 330,000 for Pwc will be made by Western automakers such as Tesla, BMW, Volkswagen, Renault, Polestar and others who have long identified the Asian country as the best place to install their assembly lines. Almost half of the electric cars produced in China and sold in Europe are already represented by Tesla's Model 3 and Model Y, which leave the Gigafactory in Shanghai.
EU ELECTRIC CARS CLOSED BETWEEN USA AND CHINA
If we consider that Joe Biden 's Wrath is also attracting European manufacturers to the USA (BMW is allegedly considering the possibility of producing electric versions of the Mini models in North America to access the incentives launched by the United States with the Inflation Reduction Act), the danger for Brussels is to find itself faced with a desert landscape, from an industrial point of view, if the adequate countermeasures are not taken.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/smartcity/auto-elettriche-la-cina-prima-tampona-poi-sorpassera-loccidente-dellautomotive/ on Thu, 04 May 2023 11:35:28 +0000.