EU army? Impossible. And America doesn’t want it. Fabbri’s analysis (Limes)
Developments in Afghanistan. The parallel convergences between the US and the Taliban against Isis. And the scenario of a European army. The analysis by Dario Fabbri (Limes)
The United States has completed its withdrawal from Afghanistan after 20 years of war . "I am here to announce the conclusion of our withdrawal from Afghanistan and the end of the mission to evacuate US citizens, citizens of other countries and Afghans at risk – General Kenneth 'Frank' McKenzie , number 1 of the US announced in a press conference. Central Command -. The last C -17 took off from Hamid Karzai International Airport at 15:29 on August 30, time for the United States east coast ”. This also means there will be no more civilian evacuations .
The long and dramatic transition
Afghanistan will now experience the real transition phase, which promises to be long and dramatic. As evidence of the Taliban difficulties in controlling the entire Afghan territory, " the United States has carried out some attacks through drones against actors participating in the local Islamic State", recalled Limes analyst Dario Fabbri during the Omnibus broadcast, on La7. “For Afghanistan the transition continues, the Taliban are called upon to consolidate their power – continued Fabbri -. I say “they are called” because they have been invested with this role ”.
Collaborations between the US and the Taliban
Although it may seem difficult to understand, the scenario in which the Taliban return to power in Afghanistan has been orchestrated by the US "enemies". Washington has chosen the Koranic students among the many actors who would like to take Kabul. “ Taliban and Americans share intelligence – added Fabbri – they exchange information because they have the common enemy of the Islamic State. The Taliban have become, in a thousand quotes, the "good ones" in the face of others who are bad ".
Afghanistan is a land of clans and tribes
Afghanistan is not a nation, it is a territory in which there are many different ethnic groups in a tribal context in which the affiliations and "consensus" are managed by the clans. " The Taliban mainly represent the Pashtun ethnic group which is an Iranian group, an Indo-European population – explains the Limes analyst -, there are other groups within the country such as the Tajiks , an ethnic group originally from Central Asia, Iran . The Tajiks would have been the only resistance in the north but they were crushed by the Taliban. Also because, unlike the Taliban, they have no external support ”.
The risk of a civil war
The risk is that the resistance of ethnic groups other than the Taliban will lead the country to civil war and then to collapse. The Taliban belong to the Pashtun ethnic group. “ The Pashtun tribal element does not look with love to the Taliban . Islamic students have a too intransigent approach to the things of society – says Dario Fabbri in the special of " Mappa Mundi " on the attack in Kabul -. This approach is not accepted by tribal leaders. At the same time, however, if the Pashtun tribal chiefs are called upon to choose between a pro-American, Tajik or Taliban government, the tribal chiefs always choose the Taliban, because they are Pashtuns like them ".
The external support of the Taliban
The fragmentation, the lack of ethnic homogeneity and the presence of multiple actors who wish to take power in Kabul outline a scenario for which it is easy to expect a disastrous existence . “The possibility that Afghanistan might fall into a civil war is the most worrying and also the most realistic scenario – underlines Fabbri on La7 -. The Taliban have the will of external powers on their side. Everyone chose the Taliban, from the Americans down. The Chinese have made deals with them. The Turks needless to say, they would even like to manage the Kabul airport together with Qatar. Lastly, there are the Russians who have a great interest that the country does not collapse and who work with the Taliban ”.
American interests in Pakistan
Americans, unlike Russian neighbors , could benefit from the Afghan chaos. "Their interest is that the Afghan chaos turns into Pakistani, because Pakistan is a crucial hub on the new silk routes, and the port of Gwadar is one of the ways China envisions to avoid the American-controlled Strait of Malacca. – says Fabbri in an interview with TPI -. If chaos hit that port because of the Taliban, the Americans would not mind at all ”.
The role of Europe
Even in the Afghan context, Europe's position has not been clearly defined. Precisely for this reason, the President of the Republic Sergio Mattarella , from Ventotene, spoke on the need for a common defense in the European context. He was echoed by the High Representative for Foreign Policy and Common Security Josep Borrell who in an interview with Corriere della Sera said: “We should be able to move even on our own. By strengthening our capabilities, we are strengthening NATO ”.
Common European defense
The common European defense is one of the never realized pillars of the European construction. “Building the armed forces means dying, because in war, and this is not very clear through video games, but you die – says Fabbri -. And you die for someone else just for feeling . A Lithuanian who dies for a Spaniard does not exist. I have never seen an average Italian who wants to die for a Finn. One has the feeling that being in the armed forces means going for peace operations in which you shoot as in video games and then when you are in difficulty you communicate in English. Real life is not this. The nation is not built in this way, it is pure sentiment . Often the feeling comes after someone's imposition on someone else. All nations were born like this, there is a central nucleus that imposes itself on the others. And then the European armed forces who commands them? Who is there to be commanded by another nationality in front of people who shoot you? ".
American opposition to the single European army
The interests of the United States are also opposing the creation of a single European army. “ The Americans in no way want a European army unless we want to do it in a cosmetic form in which we send it out for parades, we give flags – concludes Fabbri -. And then when we make war we do serious things, and we make it disappear. Otherwise we have to make war on the Americans. If real European armed forces were to be built, war must be waged against the Americans . So good luck ”.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/un-esercito-ue-impossibile-e-lamerica-non-lo-vuole-lanalisi-di-fabbri-limes/ on Sat, 04 Sep 2021 06:20:50 +0000.