Expo Dubai, all the opportunities for Made in Italy. Sace report

Expo Dubai will finally kick off next October, an international showcase also for Italy which boasts a positive economic-financial relationship with the UAE .

Reports supported by the numbers: 2021 will see the export of goods to the country restart after the contraction of last year, a dynamic that will continue in the coming years with a growth rate for 2022 of 9.5% (+5, 4% the overall figure).

The driving force, as of this year, will be the investment goods sectors (+ 17.6%), in particular mechanical engineering (+ 14.8%) which will benefit from the government's diversification plans aimed at transforming Federation in a manufacturing hub (Fig. 1). In general, there is a tendency on the part of the government to replace a more muscular foreign policy (think of the operational theaters of Yemen and Libya) towards the objective of attracting investments from abroad. Politically, this can be seen with the normalization of relations with Israel and Qatar, while economically, initiatives and regulations have been launched that go precisely in this direction: the "Operation 300 billion" which aims to expand the industrial sector in order to increase in ten years the GDP deriving from the industrial sector from the current AED 130 billion to AED 300 billion (about $ 80 billion), or the important reform of last November that allows 100% foreign ownership of local companies, without resorting to Emirati partners, before possible only within the Exclusive Economic Zones, or the “Project of 50” program which consists of a series of initiatives aimed at making the UAE operating context even more business friendly.

The restart will also be based on sectors not strictly linked to traditional Made in Italy , but with a high technological content (eg agricultural technologies that will allow the country to reduce the food supply problems it suffers from): Expo Dubai theme, “Connecting Minds, Creating the Future”, where Italy with the Beauty Connects People pavilion will bring not only traditional Italian beauty; other engines of the recovery will be renewable energy, aerospace and the health sector (biomedical and pharmaceutical) on whose digitalisation of services the government is accelerating. Without forgetting already consolidated sectors such as energy and heavy industry. The Expo factor will drive the recovery, albeit still partial, of our export of consumer goods (+ 14.4% in 2021) and the recovery of agri-food (+ 18.4%).

Very positive signs come from the first six months of the year according to which our exports to the Federation increased not only compared to (obvious) 2020, but also compared to the same pre-pandemic period (+ 4.4% Jan-Jun ' 21 vs Jan-Jun '19), attesting the United Arab Emirates as an outlet market full of opportunities, to be seized above all in the transport sector (+ 32.8% trend), rubber and plastic (+20.1 %), mechanical engineering (+ 16.8%) and other consumption (+ 16.2%).

The pre-pandemic estimates regarding Expo spoke of 25 million visitors and a contribution to the economy of almost $ 40 billion, but it is likely that the positive impact will be less, not because of the health situation of the Federation – which has been among the countries with the most effective vaccination campaign – but due to restrictions imposed by other countries and generally more hesitation to undertake international travel.

Expo will be, in the short term, a driving force for growth both for Dubai and for our exports, but on the duration and intensity of the post-restart expansion of the entire Federation in the more distant future, we will have to wait for a return to conditions of (new) normal of the global economy.