Fossil fuels will be with us for a long time to come. Unep Report
A world free of fossil fuels won't be around the corner even at the start of the new decade, according to a new United Nations report
If 2030 still seems far away in terms of years, it is probably even more so from the point of view of the full and total affirmation of clean energy. In short, a world without fossil fuels will not be around the corner even at the beginning of the new decade. Catastrophism? No, this is what is foreseen by a new report drawn up by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) together with other institutes entitled “Reduction or gradual increase? Major fossil fuel producers plan even more extraction despite climate promises."
THE LONG DOMINION OF OIL AND GAS
According to the findings of this analysis, “governments expect to produce approximately 110% more fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C and 69% more than how much would be consistent with 2°C.”
“This happens – UNEP regretfully recalls – despite 151 national governments having committed to achieving net zero emissions”. Also according to the IEA, “global demand for coal, oil and gas will peak this decade, even without new policies.” What's more: not only states will continue to focus on gas and oil. But according to UNEP and other institutes, “the government plans would lead to an increase in global coal production until 2030 and in global oil and gas production until at least 2050, creating an ever-widening fossil fuel production gap in time".
WHAT GOVERNMENTS SHOULD DO
According to the report, then, the recipe to be followed by governments envisages first of all "an almost total elimination of the production and use of coal by 2040 and a combined reduction in the production and use of oil and gas by three-quarters by 2050 from 2020 levels, at a minimum.” As UNEP reminds us, “no one has committed to reducing the production of coal, oil and gas in line with the limitation of warming to 1.5°C”.
We therefore need more ambition on the part of the States. Especially by those who have more resources to accelerate the transition, so much so that they can help those with greater limitations.
GUTERRES' ATTACK ON FOSSIL FUELS
“Governments are literally doubling fossil fuel production; this means double trouble for people and the planet,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres. Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, Germany, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Mexico, Nigeria, Norway, Qatar, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and United States of America.
“We cannot address climate catastrophe without addressing its root cause: dependence on fossil fuels. COP28 must send a clear signal that the fossil fuel era is out of gas – that its end is inevitable. We need credible commitments to increase renewable energy, phase out fossil fuels and increase energy efficiency, while ensuring a just and equitable transition,” Guterres said.
WE NEED TO FOCUS ON CLEAN ENERGY, SAYS ANDERSEN (UNEP)
“Governments' plans to expand fossil fuel production are undermining the energy transition needed to achieve net-zero emissions, calling into question humanity's future,” said Inger Andersen, executive director of UNEP. “Powering economies with clean, efficient energy is the only way to end energy poverty and reduce emissions at the same time.”
“Starting at COP28, nations must unite behind a managed and equitable phase-out of coal, oil and gas – to ease future turbulence and benefit every person on this planet,” he added.
Also on the same line is Ploy Achakulwisut, lead author of the report and Sei scientist: “Science says we need to start reducing the global production and use of coal, oil and gas now – along with increasing clean energy, reducing of methane emissions from all sources and other climate actions – to keep the 1.5°C target alive”.
COP28
Finally, looking at the upcoming Cop28 event in Dubai, already mentioned by Andersen, Michael Lazarus, main author of the report and director of the SEI US Centre, declared that "it could be the crucial moment in which governments finally commit to phase out all fossil fuels and recognize the role producers must play in facilitating a managed and equitable transition.”
“Ahead of COP28, governments must look to dramatically increase transparency on how they will achieve emissions targets and introduce legally binding measures to support these targets,” added Neil Grant, climate and energy analyst, on the topic of the conference. Climate Analytics.
(Article published in Energia Oltre )
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/energia/combustibili-fossili-rapporto-unep/ on Sat, 11 Nov 2023 06:24:44 +0000.