Here is the real Draghi effect on the Italian economy
Italian economy: facts, numbers, comparisons and scenarios. Gianfranco Polillo's analysis
Looking at the OECD database, a pleasant surprise. For the first time, after an immemorial time, Italy ranks in the leading positions. It is no longer the black jersey in the ranking of economic growth, but, at least as regards the first half of the year, it is surpassed, in Europe, only by Austria. But it is a half length. In the past six months, our neighbors grew by 3.1 percent on the last quarter of 2020, Italy by 2.9.
It should only be added that the data is not yet complete. A good number of elements are missing. On the other hand, however, the set of countries that detect, for the purposes of the comparison with Italy, from Germany to France, are all there. And the detachment towards them is evident.
In Germany, the second quarter growth rate was 1.5 percent, compared with the previous one. Three months earlier it had fallen by 1.8 percent. Others speak of 1.7. In any case, the recovery on a half-yearly basis has not yet occurred. And in fact the gap, compared to the last quarter of 2020, is still 0.6 percent. Blame the pandemic. Few doubts about it. However, it should not be forgotten that Italy has undergone a similar conditioning. If things went better, perhaps some credit should also be given to the Draghi government, which was able to manage the emergency phase.
In France the growth rate was 0.9 per cent. We hoped for something more, but expectations were disappointed. Overall, the growth was equal to a pale 0.9 percent, given that the first quarter ended with a zero threshold. Despite this, it is hoped to close the gap with 2019 as soon as possible. Compared to those levels, a sort of last mile should be missing: a 3.3 percent, which the economy should fill with a jump in the third and fourth quarters. Difficult bet, but not impossible.
Spain, in the second quarter, grew more than Italy. With a difference of 0.1 percent in its favor. Overall, however, the poor performance of the first quarter, which had recorded a drop of 0.4 per cent, weighed heavily. The overall result records a cumulative growth of 2.3 per cent: O, 6 points less than Italy. It is not the only limit. Unlike the Bel Paese, which enjoys widespread growth, Spanish exports remain weak (0.4 per cent), highlighting a certain difficulty in terms of international competition.
The comparison with the European averages is even more interesting. In the first half of the year, the growth of the Eurozone was equal to 1.7 per cent, while that of the entire European Union was 1.8 per cent. Too little, therefore, considering that the United States has a very different performance. With a growth rate of 3.1 percent. Which ranks beyond the best positions of individual European countries. A fact that must be taken into account when we begin to discuss what economic policy to pursue, once we have come out – at least so it is hoped – from the tunnel of the pandemic.
Such important results for Italy could not fail to attract the attention of politics. The first to try to put his hat on was Giuseppe Conte . "The current growth, which I am confident will also reach 6%, – he argued during the meetings with the deputies and senators of the 5 stars – is partly due to the stronger rebound for a country like ours that has been hit more hard since the pandemic, the rest is due to the economic policies and fiscal stimuli implemented throughout 2020: a total of 100 billion of expansion, plus 4 Ristori decrees and a budget of 40 billion ".
The approach had been suggested a few days earlier by il Fatto . Who had not hesitated to circumscribe Italy's successes, blaming them, in fact, for the greatest fall in Italian GDP during the days of the pandemic. Which is only minimally true. Also from the OECD database, it is evident that the annus horribilis, for Italy, was not so much in 2020. Spain, then, fared worse than Italy. As much as the previous one. In 2019, Italy, as usual one would say, took last place in the ranking, to the delight of our neighbors.
Putting aside these useless protagonists, there remains the satisfaction for a turning point which, despite all its intrinsic uncertainties, could nevertheless represent a turning point. Mario Draghi's presidency has profoundly affected both internal and international expectations. Which explains the "surprise" of the second quarter, destined, at least so it is hoped, not to end in a flash in the pan. Word, at least, of the Parliamentary Budget Office: the independent body that monitors the evolution of the economic situation and its repercussions, in financial terms.
“According to the estimates of the PBO – reads its latest economic note – Italy's GDP would expand by almost six percentage points this year and by over four in the next. The marked upward revision of the estimates for 2021, compared to those formulated in April for the validation of government forecasts, is mainly attributable to the surprise on GDP in the second quarter; for this year, a greater contribution is expected from both foreign demand and that for investments, the public component of which can be driven to a significant extent by the launch of the projects of the National Recovery and Resilience Program (PNRR) ”.
A mirage? Obviously the difficulties are not lacking. All the more so if you consider that the virus, with its mutations, is still that monster of video games that you can never get rid of. So we cross our fingers, but without abandoning the desire to react. Which is the premise of any resilience.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/economia/ecco-il-vero-effetto-draghi-sulleconomia-italiana/ on Fri, 06 Aug 2021 04:23:25 +0000.