I’ll explain the purposes and risks of the treaty with France (blessed by the USA). Speak Pelanda
Start Magazine conversation with Carlo Pelanda, analyst, essayist and professor of economic geopolitics at the Guglielmo Marconi University, on the signing of the Quirinal Treaty between France and Italy
Italy and France have strengthened their "friendship" and brought their positions closer through the evocative " Treaty of the Quirinale ". An agreement that commits the two states to collaborate side by side on the themes of research and innovation but also on foreign policy, migration and European cooperation.
The signing of the treaty had a long process with negotiating tables that lasted throughout 2021 . Carlo Pelanda, analyst, essayist and professor of economic geopolitics at the Guglielmo Marconi University, explains what lies behind the declarations of intent and what is the " sponge strategy " to which Italy has been forced.
Are there more risks or benefits for Italy with the Quirinal Treaty?
More than a Treaty, I would speak of a letter of intent which, as such, is not binding. The constraint is transferred to the work plan document which is an annex to the Treaty which commits the parties to a rather intense consultation on many matters. Our diplomacy has tried to avoid an excess of conditionality on the French side , in turn the French have accepted but are convinced that they can do good and bad times and come out victorious in any dispute with Italy. Italy must strengthen its ability to negotiate with France with an eye on Germany. There are no immediate dangers but if Italy does not strengthen its ability to negotiate there could be serious problems. Furthermore, this agreement can be a potential negotiating lever with Germany, even if we still do not know how rigorous the new German government will be.
What are the salient parts of the treaty?
Surely the space part is very delicate . Very worrying is that on the side of the Treaty the Italian Space Agency made a draft agreement with ESA , the European Space Agency, to transfer both PNRR money and human resources to ESA signaling an inability to spend this money. If this is confirmed, we can also close the Italian Space Agency.
Why is ESA based in Paris?
Yes, but in this case the problem is the Italian weakness. Indeed , ASI as a contracting authority has Italian bureaucratic difficulties, so it is clear that the French will try to take the money from the Italian PNRR to use it in ESA. Italy has tried to defend itself but is weak. We struggle to use our money, due to the bureaucracy. France has sensed this vulnerability and they are exploiting it, the risk is that they will break through like a hot knife in butter.
What effects for Leonardo and the Italian aerospace industry?
No, certainly there was a counter-reaction in fact this draft I am talking about was supposed to be signed by Minister Colao but it was blocked . This is a bilateral agreement lateral to the Quirinal Treaty but in some way it is part of the Treaty itself. Italy has not yet signed with the excuse that an inter-ministerial passage is needed but in reality it is taking time. The game is open but here it is Italy that must strengthen its negotiating capacity. It is clear that the French always have a predatory attitude that is only muffled in their ways.
Can you give us an example of this predatory attitude?
Of course. The treaty mentions the Italian Ariane 6 and Vega launchers for space exploration. The Italian industry has a great capacity to produce solid fuels, a little less liquid ones. Conversely, the French and Germans are stronger on liquid fuel technology. There has been sabotage by the French on the missiles of the Vega launcher because it is a very efficient competitor of the Ariane carrier. In the side agreements to the Treaty, Italy is in great difficulty, the French have tried to create asymmetries: they do not commit to the commercialization of Vega but force Italy to engage in the commercialization of Ariane launches. This is to say that Italian diplomacy has managed to make the Treaty a letter of intent without immediate consequences, but on the sides of the treaty France is pushing a lot, they have made a precise analysis of Italian vulnerabilities and with a smile they try to take money and Italian capabilities under French command to nullify competition. Italy has taken time against a pressure that is getting heavier.
Why did Italy decide to sign this letter of intent? What are the deep forces that led to signing?
First of all, the French pressure on Italy since 2018. France needs to formalize the fact that it commands Italy. In foreign policy there is a priority of the Italian government that concerns Libya . In confidential talks Draghi and Macron are trying to reach an agreement. Behind this agreement there is also one between Eni and Total , so let's say that Italy has the strategic hope of converging with France to fix Libya. Secondly, the idea that, together with France, a return to rigor in the German manner in European rules can be held up against the Italian logic. Finally there was the need to end an economic war with France that Italy was losing. It's like when a boxer is played and is taking shots from all sides . What does he do? Hug the opponent. Here is the same logic: to cushion the French pressure. In diplomacy this is called the "Sponge move", if I can't fight the opponent I slow it down. I also used this technique in a similar situation between 2001 and 2005 when I was advisor for strategies to Defense Minister Antonio Martino . At that time, France wanted to buy Finmeccanica, with our money, however, and we managed to stop them without arguing too much because Italy cannot afford to argue too much over the debt issue.
And what are France's interests?
France needs to get alongside Italy to balance the German weight. Because Germany is making fun of France, it has signed a bilateral treaty but is doing its own business. In terms of traditional geopolitics, Italy has made a sensible move. If France helps Italy stabilize Libya, that's good news. There is a potential interest of Italy in a systemic agreement but we will only know in several months.
Did Italy and France manage to "scare" Germany?
It is a bit illusory to think that Germany will be impressed by Italy and France , as if it were possible to block the return of rigor to Europe. Italy and France cannot change the European rule, the euro is a currency without a state, and no one wants to give the euro a state, much less the French. The strength of the euro comes from rigor . Maybe Italy and France can work to cushion it a bit, they will bring the debt parameters from 60% to 100% over the next 10 years, also because France has reached 120%. Germany is therefore not worried, German companies will be more attentive. Italy moves in an emergency with a government in which the prime minister has to make sub-optimal compromises every day. And this is not a criticism of Draghi . When I was Cossiga's assistant at the Quirinale he told me that "you had to light the fire with the wood available ". There is nothing immediate, the treaty is a hoax, the image is that of the punched boxer trying to avoid punches.
How will the relationship with Germany change, if it does? And with the USA?
Nothing will change with the US. The treaty reiterates that European defense will be complementary to NATO, this softens French positions on NATO, even if what complementarity means is left to the future. The US has fostered relations between France and Italy, in the person of the secretary of state Antony Blinken , who is of French education. This is because the US wants to focus on the Indo-Pacific and wants someone to take care of the Mediterranean area. They are no longer so big that they can preside over the whole world, plus space and cyber space . As far as Germany is concerned, we can say that it is not worried, on the contrary the German analysis technicians have laughed. The Bavarian newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung ironically published an article in which it wondered how long it would be before the Italian and French cousins began to quarrel.
Will our government have the capacity to transform the agreement with France into an opportunity?
We don't know this, the only thing we know is that we have taken some time to be able to strengthen Italy. The problem is that Italy is weak on its own, not on the merits of others. It is anomalous that Italy, a G7 country, is so weak in defending its interests but this has happened because for decades it has relied on American protection and did not want to be an autonomous actor. Italy must develop a real negotiating capacity, position itself better in Europe. We cannot expect to be between France and Germany without developing our own strength. Italy must learn to deal with those who are bigger and badder . It must change the rules and make them more competitive, it must have a national security council , it must learn to strategize and be able to defend its interests, albeit in a cooperative language.
Dario Fabbri, from Limes, wrote in "La Stampa": "Italy's treaty with France serves both to avoid the return of German-born austerity to Europe, and to protect itself from Turkey, which has control of Tripolitania Libyan and is very present (even militarily) in the Balkans. In summary: in Rome it is better to stay on the side of Paris to protect themselves from Berlin and Ankara ”. What do you think?
I think differently. I think it is a somewhat partial analysis. Rome has an interest in pretending to be convergent with Paris in order to be able to deal better with Germany. But this will still be softer than in the past because she too is in debt. The point is that Italy must have greater internal rigor to independently reduce its debt. As for Turkey, there is NATO interest in not humiliating it and in waiting for a new President to be elected instead of Erdgoan. We cannot afford to lose Turkey because, while it is true that half of it is a backward nation, half of it is a modern country, it is a European country. We do not need to defend ourselves against Turkey because it does not have the ability to expand its influence too much. Turkey is not our enemy, on the contrary it is our big customer, the economic exchange is very strong, unlike France. Finally, the US does not want Turkey to leave NATO. True, the Turks are growing up in the Balkans. But it is also true that there is a more reserved way to counter the Turkish advance, Turkey is very vulnerable . The right enemy are China and Russia in Africa , Italy has all the advantage of understanding how to fight, there is a delay in Africa in which Franco-Italian cooperation could be useful. Provided there is the American military umbrella, of course.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/primo-piano/vi-spiego-fini-e-rischi-del-trattato-con-la-francia-benedetto-dagli-usa-parla-pelanda/ on Sun, 28 Nov 2021 06:46:11 +0000.