I’ll tell you about the upcoming wars between the USA and China
The different strategies of China and the US in the trade and geopolitical war between the two countries. Giuseppe Gagliano's analysis
Yesterday as today, there are not a few analysts and scholars of international politics who have been deceived by Chinese politics. In fact, thanks to the excellent ability in the political field – often very far from the coarse choices made by the United States in matters of foreign policy – an image was given of a China overwhelmed by corruption problems, by the management of ethnic minorities and by environmental. In reality, China is far from declining as its Gross Domestic Product almost exceeds that of the United States.
We must never forget, considering China's recent history, that the Dragon's ultimate goal is to avenge the humiliation that the Americans have inflicted on him. For a long time, China accepted American aid, thereby laying the foundations for the current power projection policy.
Let's see, albeit briefly, to retrace the steps that allowed China to become a power capable of opposing the US thanks to the US which, in order to oppose Russia, laid the foundations for the current hegemony it has girded.
In 1971, US President Richard Nixon decided to formalize relations between China and the United States. But in 1985, CIA agent Larry Wu-Tai Chin confessed to providing China with confidential documents in preparation for a China-US reconciliation plan prepared by China.
To influence President Richard Nixon and push him to reconcile China with the United States, the plan was to invite Nixon to Beijing. The second part of the plan was to demonstrate to the United States China's determination to move away from the Soviet sphere of influence. For this, China unannounced two hydrogen bomb tests right near the Soviet borders.
Despite everything, President Richard Nixon resisted these attempts because he wanted to avoid retaliation by the Soviets. But he finally gave in in July 1971 when his competitor Ted Kennedy, a senator from Massachusetts, expressed his will to be the first American politician to visit Beijing.
And so, in February 1972, Richard Nixon visited Mao Zedong in Beijing. Some "gifts" to China followed, such as the termination of the CIA aid program for the Dalai Lama or the recognition by the United States in 1978 of Communist China as a legitimate government. Without forgetting of course the scientific collaboration between the two countries during the Reagan administration which supported China in the development of eight national research centers on various and important scientific issues such as robotics, artificial intelligence and space technologies.
Furthermore, in 1981, Reagan himself signed the directive on national security which authorized the sale of ships and missile technology to China. Not only.
Despite the lame memory of many Italian analysts who are persuaded that the history of China-US relations began the day before yesterday, the United States has also sold weapons to China by helping it in its civilian nuclear programs through nuclear cooperation.
In other words, the United States made a strategic mistake similar to the one made in Afghanistan: they trained the mujahideen in an anti-Soviet function and then found them as fierce enemies in the context of Islamic Jihad.
In this regard, I would like to advise readers to go and read this splendid essay by John K. Cooley entitled: “An unholy war. The CIA and Islamic extremism "in which" to oppose the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, in 1979, the United States made a surprising anti-communist alliance with Islamic extremists. Cooley tells the background of this alliance and how the CIA planned the "holy war" in Afghanistan. It tells how, with the help of Saudi Arabia, Pakistani military intelligence and even the involvement of China, two hundred and fifty thousand Islamic mercenaries from all over the world were armed, trained and financed. Moreover, with an impressive body of evidence, Cooley traces the disruptive consequences of that operation: the triumph of the Taliban, the worldwide spread of Islamic terrorism, the destabilization of Algeria and Chechnya, the attacks on the World Trade Center. And in all this, the role of Osama bin Laden, already "protected" by the CIA and now "public enemy number one", stands out curiously.
Returning to China, in the context of its strategy to become an international hegemonic power, the Dragon has not focused on excessive military investments as the US has done; on the contrary, it has mainly turned its attention to those weapons that allow to cancel the effects of enemy weapons such as anti-satellite technologies or cyber intrusions.
However, it was only in March 2013 that China's true ambitions came to light through the speech of Xi Jinping, the new president of the People's Republic of China who underlined his desire to see his "dream of a strong nation" come true. in 2049.
In short, China has been able for over thirty years to hide its ambition to become a hegemonic power from foreign powers in order not to alert its adversaries too quickly while, in the meantime, it influenced experts and other external stakeholders to gain their sympathy and their favor.
Patience has been essential – and will be essential – to achieve the goals and therefore China is following in the footsteps of its 14 imperial dynasties by taking the time to deceive and identify the right moment, the famous "shi" force, to attack.
Instead of wasting time and money developing its military assets as the US does, China prefers to target the opponent's weaknesses. Not only that, China is interested in implementing a strategy that uses international law to limit the freedom of action and legislative choices of the United States. Foreign policy makers (businessmen, politicians, and media figures) would be mapped out of China based on their degree of sympathy and support for China. Those who are considered friends of China have privileged access to government contracts and investments. But In return, they must spread the image of a peaceful China that needs help and does not pose a global threat.
Instead the others – that is, those who express dissent – are quickly marginalized and their influence neutralized by China. For this, China is blocking their access to visas.
In addition to this strategy, China also carries out direct and indirect actions against the Western media. Therefore, direct actions are underway by Chinese diplomats and Chinese-related personalities to limit the publication of compromising information for China. As for indirect actions, China has a real strategy of pressure exerted on the media by advertisers, partner companies of China and foreign governments. Any critical publication exposes these media to the risk of having advertisements blocked that allow them to finance themselves.
Finally, China has no qualms about even using physical assaults and cyber attacks against any annoying person.
Ultimately, many scholars are convinced that there are three possible scenarios.
The first is that of a unipolar world with Chinese hegemony.
The second is that of two superpowers which are the United States and China while the third is that of a tripartite division between the United States, China and India.
However, the world situation depends very much on the development of moderate and reformist movements in China, as well as on the assistance the West has provided – and will provide – to these movements – as it is doing with Taiwan and Hong Kong – to destabilize from within. China with the collaboration of its trusted British ally. Let us think in this regard of the so-called Arab Spring in which the role of the OTP movement played a decisive role.
What then will be the strategy put in place by the United States?
At the geo-economic level, for example, limit the financial aid granted each year by the United States to China as an aid to growth, measure and develop American competitiveness as China is already doing, identify and report the Chinese polluters that cause the increase in gas emissions 500 million tons greenhouse annually in China.
At a geostrategic level, find allies who share the same goal both nationally and internationally by supporting for example countries currently intimidated by China such as Mongolia, South Korea, Japan and the Philippines, as well as supporting both Chinese dissidents and pro-democracy reformers in China while at the internal security level, the US should strengthen the security of intellectual and technological properties by protecting itself from cyber espionage and increase counter-espionage since China has proven to be very capable of infiltrating American porous society by exploiting its weaknesses.
Ultimately, to get an idea of how dangerous China is, it would be enough to look at what is happening today in Australia and at the reports published by the Australian intelligence that we have already had the opportunity to discuss on these pages.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/guerra-usa-cina-guerre/ on Wed, 09 Dec 2020 05:56:20 +0000.