Intesa Sanpaolo, Unicredit and more. All the bank moves on dividends awaiting the ECB
What are the banks in the pipeline on dividends pending the green light of the ECB to detach the coupons. Analysts' estimates. The article by Emanuela Rossi
Just over a month later and from Frankfurt a clear word will arrive on the dividend payments of European banks, which have been stopped since last year due to the pandemic. The analysts therefore wasted no time and began to do the accounts in the pockets of the shareholders, especially those of the credit institutions with the highest turnover.
WHAT THE ECB HAD DECIDED
In July 2020, the European Central Bank had recommended to EU credit institutions not to detach coupons and not to make purchases of treasury shares until January 2021 due to the economic crisis caused by the spread of Covid-19. In December, another suspension or in any case a limitation within certain thresholds arrived until 30 September 2021 also with regard to the buy-back plans. In March Andrea Enria, chairman of the Eurotower Supervisory Board and former EBA number one, had made it clear that – in the absence of particularly negative developments in the situation – the payment of dividends could be resumed.
WHAT THE ECB WILL DO AND WHAT ANDREA ENRIA SAID
Enria kept his promise and last Tuesday – during a virtual Afme-Omfif conversation on financial integration – announced that on 23 July the ECB will decide whether or not to remove the dividend ban after 30 September 2021. As reported by the website of Milano Finanza , Enria clarified that for the Frankfurt Supervision the decision on which remuneration method for the shareholders the banks intend to choose (dividends or buybacks) is neutral because the main interest of the EBA is the respect of the capital requirements.
EQUITA SIM FORECASTS
For Equita Sim analysts – given the improvement in economic prospects and progress in the vaccination campaign in the various EU countries – it is "likely" that the ECB will decide to remove the ban at the end of September even if it will be necessary to understand whether the central bank will prefer a 'general authorization or whether it will leave restrictions assessed on a case-by-case basis on the basis of the capital and profitability profiles of the individual institutions.
Going into the details of the Italian banks , Equita Sim recalls that Unicredit intends to carry out a repurchase program for 652 million euros (approximately 3% of the market capitalization), Intesa Sanpaolo to detach coupons for approximately 0.10 euros per share ( approximately 4% dividend yield) with reference to both 2020 results and an interim payment on 2021, Mediobanca instead for € 0.63 per share or a 6% dividend yield in November. In addition, all asset management companies are expected to comply by far with capital requirements and distribute attractive coupons. Waiting for 23 July, analysts have already calculated that Intesa Sanpaolo with a potential return of over 6%, Unicredit with one of 6.2%, BFF Bank with a yield of 12.2 will benefit most from the removal of the payment stop. %, Banca Mediolanum of 9.1% and Banca Generali with a yield of 7.8%.
THE FORECASTS OF MEDIOBANCA SECURITIES
Also according to Mediobanca Securities good news arrives from Frankfurt. Analysts believe the removal of the dividend ban and therefore a progressive return of more capital is likely. "We see about 20% of the market capitalization in excess of capital – reads a report from the equity brokerage division of Piazzetta Cuccia – and this is one of the pillars behind our constructive position on EU banks, which is coupled with inflationary pressures, stronger than expected GDP, inexpensive valuations compared to other sectors and M&A, while any negative aspects, such as NPLs, are postponed to 2022 ”.
The forecast is therefore to continue attracting macro funds to the sector and to see the return of income funds. Thanks to these ideas – Milanofinanza.it recalls – Mediobanca Securities recently promoted Unicredit and Banco Bpm to outperform and confirmed the outperform rating on Bper Banca as regards Italy.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/economia/intesa-sanpaolo-unicredit-e-non-solo-tutte-le-prossime-mosse-delle-banche-sui-dividendi-in-attesa-della-bce/ on Mon, 21 Jun 2021 08:05:40 +0000.