Is a war between Russia and Ukraine possible?
The large-scale war in Ukraine is not realistic, it is not in the interest of Russia, from any point of view. The deepening by Stefano Grazioli
War yes, war no.
The question was asked by the West after the alarm raised by Ukraine for tens of thousands of soldiers present in various bases near the former Soviet republic and also in Belarus, such as that of Yelna, whose satellite photos are end up in the US media. Obviously war not, given that on the one hand both Moscow has repeatedly said that it has no intention, no interest, in a large-scale operation, on the other, non-deployed observers have ruled out such a scenario for various reasons. That Kiev, Washington and Brussels are in tension is normal, but the propaganda game is evident on both sides.
Moscow has never denied there have been troop movements, even residues of the great maneuvers of September, Zapad 2021, and in any case they have stated that on their territory they can do what they want without asking anyone. It is a muscular game, between the Russian exercises and those of NATO from the Baltic to the Black Sea, which has been going on for years. The risk of accidents is high; for now nothing has happened.
To explain the position of the Kremlin, the dossiers overlap: there is the question of armaments in Kiev, both from NATO and from individual states, the US of course, but also and above all Great Britain, which after Brexit is increasingly engaged in confrontation remote with Moscow. Then there is everything that is happening in Ukraine, not only in an anti-Russian key (non-compliance with the Minsk agreements is everyone's sackcloth, it is not just Russia that boycott and Kiev's responsibilities are there for all to see) , and with the internal struggles between President Volodymyr Zelensky and the oligarchs (Rinat Akhmetov last, but the list is long): the head of state, with the ratings in a swoop, has taken an authoritarian path since the beginning of the year, with media limitations and repressions against the opposition, without the European Union and the United States having lifted a finger, indeed turning their face
In Ukraine, there is a war party supported by hawks in Washington that is aiming for a confrontation in the Donbass, thus triggering the Russian reaction: in any case, Russia would be considered as an aggressor, a bit like it happened in 2008 in Georgia. Even then, and the Tagliavini commission promoted by Brussels had put it down in black and white, it was President Mikhail Saakashvili who ordered the attack in Ossetia and triggered the Russian response (which obviously was prepared and did not wait). In the Ukrainian southeast and especially on the Black and Azov seas, the possibility of a spark is real.
The whole issue is very complex, there is no black or white, it is all very gray, propaganda on all sides plays a fundamental role and it is really difficult to extricate yourself. The issue of Ukraine's entry into NATO, the red line that the Kremlin does not want to be crossed, is fundamental and the compromise between Russia and the US will have to be found on this. Moscow moves aggressively, also because it has no other means to make it clear what the limits are not to be crossed: the US and the EU supported the change of regime in 2014 without thinking about the consequences and for these years they have been disinterested in what was happening in Kiev (reforms, rights, etc.), contenting themselves with the fait accompli, that is, having brought down a pro-Russian government (all already seen elsewhere).
The large-scale war is not realistic, it is not in the interest of Russia, from any point of view, but targeted operations, perhaps initially beyond the current front line, for example on Mariupol , which remains a key port, also for the economy of the occupied Donbass, they are not to be excluded, if something does not move. Putin won't worry too much about retaliation if he judges the game is worth the candle. After seven years of sanctions, the Russian economy is doing well, the only thing to do wrong would be the exclusion from Swift, but certainly not the blocking of Nord Stream 2 , which will become a problem for Germany and perhaps for the rest of the country. 'Europe that still needs gas to accelerate the green transition, not for Russia, which will send more and more blue gold eastwards, towards China.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/russia-ucraina-guerra/ on Sat, 11 Dec 2021 07:29:40 +0000.