Is there an energy blackout risk in Italy?
What Italy risks with the European energy sanctions on Russia and with the decline in hydroelectricity. Sergio Giraldo's article
Two weeks after Ursula von der Leyen's announcement, the sixth package of sanctions against Russia is still lost in the dark mechanisms of the European Union. The Hungarian government holds the point and blocks any hypothesis of an agreement on the Russian oil embargo, for which the unanimity of the 27 member states is envisaged. While Malta, Greece and Cyprus ensure that the transport of Russian petroleum products by sea is not penalized in the package of sanctions, the hypothesis of lifting the embargo and firing a sixth lighter package, without references, is increasingly gaining ground in Brussels. , for now, to Russian oil. This would be a sensational step back from the thunderous announcements of the European Commission a fortnight ago.
No less thunderous is the green light for the payment of gas by European companies according to the scheme proposed by Vladimir Putin. With the payment deadline approaching, over the weekend the Commission hinted that it considers its guidelines already dictated at the time to be clear and comprehensive. There will therefore be no further details on whether or not the sanctions in force in the process proposed by Russia for the payment of gas are adhered to. At the same time, an anonymous official clarified to some news agencies that “from the point of view of Europe, there is no problem as long as the sum is paid in euros. Once the transaction is concluded, we have no control over what happens next, Gazprom can make the exchange in rubles but the important thing is that European entities do not order the exchange. " This version was also confirmed by Frans Timmermans, European Commissioner for the Green Deal. Therefore, opening an account with Gazprombank and paying euros or dollars into it to pay for gas does not in itself infringe the sanctions imposed by the Union. After two months of disputes over payment in rubles, the European Union is forced to grudgingly admit that those who behave according to the rules dictated by the Russian decree on gas payments do not violate European sanctions. Bad blow for the intransigents who, in the aftermath of the Russian decree, had spoken of an unacceptable modification of contracts.
As Europe stumbles on itself, the issue of filling gas storage for the next winter season is worrying. Last week, the operator of the pipeline crossing Ukraine invoked force majeure on one of the two entry points for the transit of gas from Russia. Citing problems with a compressor that was allegedly tampered with by the occupying Russian forces, he closed the Sokhranivka entry point. The effect is approximately 35% less of gas flows entering Italy from the north-eastern route. Gazprom is unlikely to be able to compensate by increasing flows to the other Ukrainian entry point, that of Sudzha, since these are two different lines in Russian territory.
The lower gas input has not caused problems in Italy up to now, also thanks to the greater inflows of Norwegian gas at the Gries Pass, in the upper Ossola Valley. But now the delay with which the commercial storage filling season has started (ie net of the strategic one) is compounded by the uncertainty on flows from abroad. Despite the sustained pace of the last 30 days in filling, the difference in the volumes of gas in storage at SNAM-Stogit today compared to previous years is still very large: -36% compared to 2019, -55% compared to 2020, and -32 % compared to 2021. The filling curve will have to be much steeper than the current one, if we want to arrive at 15 October with 90% of the space occupied by gas in storage. Yesterday, meanwhile, there was an intervention in the debate by Carlo Messina, CEO of Intesa Sanpaolo: "Stopping the gas tap means going towards a certain recession and a significant loss of jobs," Messina said .
(Extract from an article published in the newspaper La Verità)
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/energia/italia-blackout-energetico/ on Wed, 18 May 2022 08:20:28 +0000.