Mediterranean and beyond. Is our navy ready? The analysis of Doctors (Limes)
Threats are growing in the Mediterranean, which is why our Navy needs more ships, personnel and ammunition. The point of Germano Dottori (scientific advisor of Limes)
Not only the war in Ukraine, the importance of protecting the seas also emerged following the sabotage of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines.
“There is an unseen naval warfare. We focus on Ukraine, but there are over 12 Russian ships plus submarines in the Mediterranean, capable of hitting targets not only in Ukraine but also in our country ", underlined the president of Cesi (Center for international studies), Andrea Margelletti in a recent interview with the Messenger .
“The offensive posture is not only towards Ukraine, the Russians are getting ready to carry out operations across the board. Their fleet based in Tartus, Syria, is very respectable, without forgetting the Russian submarines that represent a threat to the Italian fleet, but also to commercial levels. There is a situation of enormous tension even outside Ukraine ”. And speaking of the sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipeline: "There are also gas pipelines between Algeria and Italy, between Albania and Italy, between Libya and Italy, thank goodness there is a monitoring of Italian Navy ”, Margelletti recalled.
But if "the Navy is alarmed by the growth of threats in the Mediterranean" it is also asking for "resources to face them", writes Germano Dottori (scientific advisor of Limes) in the latest issue of Limes .
As recalled last March by the Chief of Staff of the Navy, Admiral Enrico Credendino, during a hearing in Parliament, "from an operational model of reference between forces, the fleet should consist of 65 units, but we have 57". Not only that, today the real criticality for the Navy is the personnel who have undergone constant linear cuts over the years.
“On this basis, the Chief of Staff had expressed the need to acquire greater capabilities in the anti-submarine and anti-aircraft fight, with investments that will take years to materialize in new platforms,” Dottori pointed out.
All the details.
MEDITERRANEAN: FROM A SITUATION OF PEACE TO A SITUATION OF PERMANENT COMPETITION
"In the Mediterranean we have gone from a situation of peace with possible escalation towards crisis or conflict to a situation of permanent competition between the countries of the area and, therefore, to a situation of permanent unstable equilibrium that can evolve into crisis and conflict" he observed the Chief of Staff of the Navy, Admiral Enrico Credendino, last 10 March, speaking at the Defense commissions.
“Clearly this has been emphasized in the last few days since the war in Ukraine, but already in the previous months there had been a noticeable increase in the Russian fleet. In 2015, therefore only seven years ago, a Russian logistics ship was permanently present in Tartus. Over the years, the Russian fleet has increased with an average of between 10 and 12 ships and submarines in the Mediterranean in recent months, in addition to the Russian fleet in the Black Sea, ”Admiral Credendino underlined in the hearing.
THE POINT ON INVESTMENTS
If we are somehow in terms of investments, Dottori observes that "the overall decline in the medium term of the available platforms is complained and the timing of some programs still seems inadequate for the urgency of the moment, especially the purchase of the F-35Bs for to the Cavour aircraft carrier and to Trieste . Cavo Dragone and Credendino asked the government and parliament to further strengthen the anti-submarine and anti-aircraft fighting capabilities, finding a certain audience. Consequently, the Fremm version ASW – Anti-Submarine Warfare – specifically adapted to the hunting of hostile submarines will increase, even if it seems that some of their equipment will not be given up, also useful in the projection of the fire on the ground. And steps are being taken to expand the fleet's air defense capabilities ”.
MORE TRAINING FOR THE NAVY
After that Dottori, an analyst of geopolitics and international relations, recalls that “Admiral Cavo Dragone proudly claimed in parliament the technical superiority of our Fremm compared to the corresponding ships in service in the American and French fleets. But can we say the same thing about training for all types of ships in service in our fleet? "
"The Navy does, of course, its best: but the comparison with the training pace set by the Royal Navy is impressive" underlines the analyst in the geopolitics magazine directed by Giuliano Caracciolo. "The two new British aircraft carriers are frequently at sea, in all weather and light conditions, as documented by the numerous images portraying the Queen Elizabeth and the Prince of Wales on social media leaving or entering the Portsmouth base", remarked Dottori.
In this regard, the international exercise of last November 2021 with the Italian F- 35Bs that landed on the British ship (HMS Queen Elizabeth) should be remembered; American F-35Bs that pinned on the Italian ship (Cavour) and F-35Bs of the Air Force and Navy that pinned on Nave Cavour in synergy. “A certainly positive step, strongly desired by the military leaders, and to be welcomed with favor. But it would take more, at least at these levels. The frigates, on the other hand, carry out an intense operational activity, which is allowing the acquisition of considerable experience, both inside and outside the Mediterranean ”, commented Dottori.
REVALUE AMMUNITION STOCKS
Finally, according to the Limes expert, “In the prospect of a collision of greater proportions, however, ammunition stocks should be re-evaluated: in March, Credendino had made it known that from June the anti-aircraft missiles embarked would no longer be operational. It will take some time to replace them ”.
In particular, the Chief of Staff of the Navy had pointed out that “The situation is critical in the part of the ships with anti-aircraft capabilities. We have four DDGs, but two have exhausted their operational life, Mimbelli and De la Penne. Anti-aircraft missiles expire in June and can no longer be used. Only the Doria and the Duilio remain, which are essential to guarantee the escort to the aircraft carriers and the amphibious group and to defend them. Without them these groups cannot go into the sea and then contribute to the defense against ballistic missiles of the national territory, today ensured and guaranteed by the Americans who have four ships suitable for this purpose in the Mediterranean. Reflections will have to be made on this ”.
“In any case, – points out Dottori – there is a multiplication of rumors and testimonies that describe the missile launchers of our ships as practically empty. And this is a serious problem, although it is now clear that in the event of a major conflict the issue of the consumption of materials would affect all the Western Armed Forces ”.
IS ITALY PREPARED?
“In summary, even if the shopping list is always large and the number of missions to be fulfilled has expanded due to various factors, it is possible to conclude that we are prepared to face eventualities that do not contemplate a prolonged armed confrontation with a great power. With stronger and more determined opponents, on the other hand, we would presumably have more than one difficulty, even if we would not be called to measure ourselves. A world war certainly could not see us among the protagonists, but only among the supporting actors, albeit of rank ”, concluded Dottori.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/smartcity/mediterraneo-e-non-solo-la-nostra-marina-militare-e-pronta-lanalisi-di-dottori-limes/ on Sun, 23 Oct 2022 05:21:39 +0000.