Milei’s rock plans and Argentina’s economic woes
How Milei's victory in the Argentina elections came about and what his program is. Livio Zanotti's in-depth analysis
The result of yesterday's presidential elections in the large South American country ("the most European on the continent") recalls more an exorcism than an averagely clear and conscious political choice. It leads Argentina towards a proclaimed genetic mutation, which no one actually knows about or even knows if it will actually happen. A large majority (55.7%) brings to the Casa Rosada Javier Milei, 53, the eccentric anarcho-liberal economist who was little known until a few months ago, who promises to change everything immediately without however being able to say through which technical-legal procedures and with which men. It does not have a party, but only an electoral conglomerate with a variable structure, financed through oblique channels; and he presented a program that was canceled and reinstated from rally to rally, firm only in his proclaimed desire to bury the political class under the rubble of the state reduced to just the ground floor.
However, this is how it happened and the governing Peronism (which is anything but unfamiliar with surreal experiences) immediately took note of it, in the name of democracy and good manners. Its candidate, the defeated Sergio Massa, 51, formally still Minister of Economy until January 10th, the date of the official inauguration of the new head of state, again last night, with clear but not definitive results, declared that a starting today "the answers to the crisis belong to the winners", to whom he wished good work. Reality does not cease to have its rationality… 14 and a half million Argentines preferred to be governed by the least predictable president in their homeland's history, a character who became the protagonist of a fantasy representation on the scene of national politics. No matter the risk, any unknown, just to reject a painful existence, overloaded with repeated, dark shortages and nagging insecurities.
Today Buenos Aires is already living the day after. The city of large avenidas and cafés between Plaza de Mayo and Zona Norte , from the offices of ministries and multinationals to billionaire residences, appears immersed in an almost summery spring, a little sleepy from the tense election night and a little overexcited by anxiety of an unknown near future. In which, for an only apparent paradox, the most obvious rituals of the usual politics wallow: cross phone calls, secret meetings, requests, proposals, agreements, promises. With an ever-recurring name that brings us back to the best known and most worn reality: that of Mauricio Macri, who has progressively gotten closer to Milei in recent months, to the point of openly becoming his tutelary deity and direct link with the circuit of great Argentine capital. Not backing down even at the price of splitting PRO, the party founded by himself, losing its moderate part; and damaging the family relationship with his cousin Jorge Macri, 59, elected mayor of the capital (he will also take office on January 10th).
The former president (2015-19), whose unpayable debt of 44 thousand million dollars bequeathed to the Peronist government marked his fate from the beginning, is commonly referred to in these hours as the other winner of yesterday's consultation . Perhaps the one who can most profit from it. Which certainly doesn't displease him. Strong and well-known is his feeling of revenge towards adversaries and friends, rivals and family by whom he has always felt more underestimated than appreciated. A state of mind that is independent of politics and brings him closer to Javier Milei to a surprising extent. In fact, both of them grew up alongside an authoritarian father, of powerful narcissism, a sort of father-master who always stimulated them to challenge and compete and then promptly denied faith in their initiatives. With the result that both do not hide their dislike for their respective parent, Milei has made it a public and well-known case.
No less undeniable, however, more concrete and pressing than ever, are the urgencies of the economic-social framework and the relationships between institutions. The financial balances are dramatic, with inflation and public debt skyrocketing, poverty affecting 4 out of 10 Argentines. It is the entire Argentine and Latin American context that has entered a historical phase of structural difficulties even before the collapse caused from Covid. An essential fact that was completely silent during the electoral campaign and still in these hours. Argentina, which was a leading country in the late development of the American subcontinent, is in the process of increasing deindustrialization. It loses jobs, professional qualifications and added value. The purchasing power of wages falls, even net of the drain exerted by inflation. Without being able to attract, both on the domestic market and from abroad, the investments essential for the modernization of the production system that the introduction of new technologies has initiated in the north of the world since the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis.
All the highest international bodies, from the specific commissions of the United Nations to the Monetary Fund , to the large foundations and research offices of the international banking system, unanimously point to the enormous social inequalities of Latin America as the main cause of its new dramatic difficulties. Argentina is the circumstantial example of this. The new president and the political coalition that are preparing to take over the government, at least until today, propose to deal with it by drastically reducing the already insufficient public spending ( primarily healthcare and education), bydollarizing the economy, banning abortion, liberalizing the trade in human organs and personal weapons. “We will avoid hesitations and half measures,” repeated Javier Milei, in his unstoppable maximalist rhetoric devoid of explanations understandable to most. Mauricio Macri has said several times that he reproaches himself for only one thing in his years in government: moderation.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/i-piani-rock-di-milei-e-i-guai-economici-dellargentina/ on Mon, 20 Nov 2023 14:10:53 +0000.