Nagorno-Karabakh, what Armenia and Azerbaijan combine
The point on the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the ISPI and International Affairs reports
In the disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, guns continue to thunder on the eleventh day of fighting, but at least diplomacy now has a chance.
YESTERDAY THE MINSK GROUP SAW THE ARMENIAN FOREIGN MINISTER IN GENEVA, MONDAY IS THE TURN OF THE ONE IN MOSCOW
Reconstituted in great haste, the Minsk group of the OSCE made up of the USA, Russia and France that has supervised the ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan since 1994, managed to convene Armenian Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov in Geneva yesterday and will hear on Monday in Moscow, his Azerbaijani colleague Zohrab Mnatsakanyan.
MOSCOW BURNS EVERYONE AND INVITES THE Azerbaijani and Armenian foreign ministers to Moscow tomorrow
But diplomacy is also on the march thanks to the initiative of Moscow , which, in addition to asking for an immediate cessation of hostilities, has convened the two foreign ministers of the opposing countries for tomorrow in the capital.
These are the first signs of light in a conflict that has thrown into the nightmare of war a strategic region for the world and for Europe in particular, that strip of land between the Caspian and Black Seas where oil and gas flow. in the direction of the Old Continent and where we find the Tap, which from Azerbaijan arrives in Italy through Puglia, the Cmg, without forgetting the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline.
ABOUT 50% OF THE NAGORN-KARABAKH POPULATION IS DISPLACED UNDER CONTINUOUS BOMBING
It is a thread of hope within a huge tragedy, which since 27 September, the day when hostilities began, has already caused a large number of displaced people in Nagorno-Karabakh. "According to our preliminary estimates – said the head of the self-proclaimed republic Artak Beglaryan – about 50% of the population of Karabakh and 90% of women and children, or about 70-75,000 people, had to leave their homes" .
The clashes, as said the Armenian Minister of Defense agency TASS, are continuing "all day, all along the front line and are continuing."
Many people flee in terror from Stepanakert , the 'capital' of the self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, the target of Armenian bombing at regular intervals.
The Azeris, for their part, complain about the constant bombing of the city of Ganja.
The toll of the conflict is limited but still high for now and is marred by the confusion of war. The Azerbaijani authorities reported 30 civilian deaths and 143 wounded, those of Nagorno-Karabakh speak of 19 dead civilians and 320 fighters passed away.
FOR PRESIDENT ALIYEV, EREVAN MUST RETURN WHAT IS NOT PART OF ARMENIA
In this situation of chaos, the parties, rather than talk to each other, exchange accusations with each other. Azerbaijani president I lham Aliyev reiterated what he has always thought: "Yerevan must recognize the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, apologize to its people and admit that the disputed region is not part of Armenia", he said a few days ago to the reporter.
At the same time, however, Aliyev also made explicit his conditions for stopping the military intervention: a timely withdrawal of the Armenian military forces and a clear commitment to recognize Azerbaijan's sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh and adjacent territories. Clearly unacceptable requests for the Armenian side, which maintains its positions and even relaunches, arguing that it could decide to formally recognize the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh.
It must be said, however, that with the passing of the days the positions seem to soften; Aliyev in an interview with a Russian state television agency said that his country is ready to return to dialogue with Armenia when the most acute phase of the conflict is over, while for the Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinya a cease agreement the fire will only be possible when Turkey withdraws the men Erdogan would have transferred to the front.
THE ESCALATION OF THESE DAYS LINKED TO A SERIES OF FRICTIONS
But what is the escalation of these days linked to? In the case of Armenia, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan – underlines International Affairs – was the protagonist in 2019 of a populist turn that made Nagorno-Karabakh a political flag, fomenting popular sentiment. There has therefore been a gradual tightening by the government on the subject paced by what some observers have defined as "provocations". But there has also been the construction of a large artery connecting Yerevan and Stepanakert, the capital of the Nagorno-Karabakh, also condemned by the European Parliament.
But there would also be a more suggestive and exactly opposite hypothesis, such as the one suggested by Fatto Quotidiano : " Armenia started its military operations in July in the district on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border of Tovuz, the territory affected by infrastructure projects for energy, not surprisingly a few months before the Southern Gas Corridor (Cmg) came into operation. Yerevan pursues a clear plan, to hinder these energy projects so important for Europe and, consequently, for Italy "
Rich in natural resources and with a population three times that of Armenia – recalls an ISPI dossier – Azerbaijan for its part is on paper the 'strongest' of the two states in conflict. Some think that he wanted to take advantage of the growing activism of the Turkish ally to settle the score once and for all with the Armenian enemy.
ERDOGAN HAS SEEN THE OPPORTUNITY BY RETURNING THE AZERBAIGIAN WITH WEAPONS AND FIGHTERS
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, in effect, has taken the opportunity given to him by his ally Aliyev and is riding it in a neo-Ottoman key by sending F-16 fighters, drones and Turkmen fighters from Syria, regularly recruited, trained and transported to the site at the expense of Ankara. For the moment, their number is estimated to be between a few hundred and a thousand.
On the foreign fighters sent from Ankara there is also the hypothesis that their transfer started before mid-September, confirming that Arzerbaijan had been preparing a military operation against Nagorno-Karabakh for several weeks.
From Ankara, Turkish President Erdogan does not confirm but accuses Armenia of being "the greatest threat to peace in the region". And he assured the Azerbaijani president Ilham Alijev that "the Turkish nation places itself with all its means alongside its Azerbaijan brothers and sisters".
This is the context that the Minsk group, and Moscow in particular, must now resolve. In the latest serious episode of confrontation between the contenders, dating back to 2016, Russia managed to impose a ceasefire in just four days.
THE ARCHITRAVE OF PEACE IS MOSCOW, WHICH ENJOYS GOOD RELATIONS WITH BOTH PARTIES
In fact, Moscow has an advantage: it has good relations both with Armenia, of which it is a military ally, and with Azerbaijan, of which it is an economic partner, therefore Moscow has no interest in rekindling a conflict in Transcaucasia. As underlined by the UN ambassador Vasily Nebenzya, "it is incorrect to say that Moscow supports Yerevan, rather it is necessary to say that it supports a process that brings stability to the region".
The point is that Russia cannot even afford a complete victory for Azerbaijan, which would then become Turkey's backyard in the region.
However, many think that the risk does not exist, given that Armenia is part of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (Csto) military alliance which brings together former Soviet nations that remained in the orbit of Moscow and which has in its statute the analogue of art. 5 of the Atlantic Alliance relating to the collective defense mechanism. And in Armenia, Russia has a base with more than 30,000 soldiers, as well as having deployed – in an act of extreme deterrence – the S-300s.
Given this situation, how will the situation evolve? Some think it cannot hold for long since the status quo greatly benefits Armenia and penalizes Azerbaijan, which, thanks to a considerably higher defense budget than Yerevan could afford, has taken advantage of these years to arm yourself to the teeth.
The only chance would be diplomacy, but here the room for maneuver is really tight. In the more than twenty-six years following the fragile ceasefire reached in 1994 thanks to the mediation of the Minsk Group, no progress has followed in the peace negotiations carried out by the OSCE, which have stalled since day one. The fact that the group has reconstituted itself in a hurry in these hours does not at all mean that it is able to resume its activities and channel them in a productive sense.
THE ONLY CHANCE IS DIPLOMACY, WHICH ALREADY HAS ALREADY SAID THE LAST WORD ON THE CASE OF NAGORNO-KARABAKH
Furthermore, since the dispute was brought to international fora, Azerbaijian has always emerged victorious but without being able to transform the achieved results into reality. United Nations Resolutions 822, 853, 974 and 884, all of 1993, established that Nagorno-Karabakh is a disputed region with an ethnic majority, but the seven districts around that region are Azerbaijani and therefore in their case that Armenian is to be defined as a real occupation.
All the " roadmaps " for peace identified at the international level in recent years – underlined International Affairs – therefore provide for the immediate return of at least five of these districts, that is, all except those that ensure the links between Karabakh and Armenia, i.e. territorial continuity .
What is certain is that, for the moment, more than an overall reorganization of the area, it would be desirable to end the fighting that is taking place in half of Europe and half of the Middle East. Eyes on Moscow therefore, where Vladimir Putin will find himself again in the role that has seen him protagonist in recent years, that of mediator and, if desired, of kingmaker.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/nagorno-karabakh-cosa-combinano-armenia-e-azerbaijan/ on Fri, 09 Oct 2020 07:46:26 +0000.