Putin’s flops explained by Limes
The last two issues of the Limes magazine founded and directed by Lucio Caracciolo read by Tullio Fazzolari
The end of the Cold War was to be the beginning of an era of peace. But it didn't go as hoped. Since the collapse of the Berlin Wall in November 1989, there have been massacres in Bosnia, the first Gulf War, Chechnya and Ossetia, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Donbas, Syria. We were deluded that each conflict was an episode in itself. The Russian aggression against Ukraine marks a rude awakening: we are in the era of instability and any outbreak can degenerate, compromising the already precarious international balance. Limes , the monthly geopolitics magazine founded and directed by Lucio Caracciolo, had already sounded an alarm six years ago by writing that Putin would have played everything in Ukraine and that the West would have to deal with the wicked strategies of the Kremlin. Unfortunately exact forecast. From February 24, the day the Russian offensive began, the news on the progress of the conflict is sometimes uncertain but one fact is evident: the advance of Putin's soldiers was not like that of the "Soviet steamroller" of Stalin's memory . How will the war turn out? And what will the consequences be internationally in any case?
Questions that require in-depth analysis and that must be asked if you really want to evaluate the dangers triggered by Putin in attacking Ukraine. The possible scenarios are described in detail in the last two issues of Limes : “The end of peace” and “Russia changes the world” (Gedi, 15 euros each). The articles and editorials contained in the magazine do not overlook any aspect of the question. It will be enough to name a few, starting with Putin's mistakes also from a military point of view. The decisive one was underestimating the Ukrainians' ability to defend themselves. The army of Kiev is numerically smaller than that deployed by Moscow but it is well trained and, above all, it is more motivated because it knows it must protect its country from an invasion. Also on the military level, Putin pays the price of having reduced the defense budget which is about half that of China or the United States. Which means obsolete weapons or forty-year-old ships that any other navy would have already sent to demolish but it also means low wages for officers and soldiers that do not help the morale of the troop.
Another fundamental argument is the massive rearmament planned by the German government investing a good 100 billion euros: much more than required by the commitments envisaged by NATO and more than what the US ally expected. This changes the specific weight of Germany within Europe but also within the Atlantic alliance and it will be necessary to see what the reaction of the other partners will be and, in particular, of France which for now is silent being under presidential elections. The crucial issue obviously addressed by Limes is that of energy. And it is not just the gas that affects the Western economy because Russia on par with the United States is also the largest oil producer in the world. So far there has been much discussion on how and when Russian energy resources can be dispensed with, but it is already clear that China is ready to grab them. Reflecting on Limes ' analyzes, a disturbing scenario emerges. If Putin emerges more or less unscathed from the war he has unleashed, he will have to say thanks to Beijing and not oppose it in his international policy choices. And if Putin is defeated, only two superpowers will remain, the US and China. Whatever happens, unfortunately, peace is at risk.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/i-flop-di-putin-spiegati-da-limes/ on Sat, 16 Apr 2022 08:10:12 +0000.