Russia and Saudi Arabia: similarities and differences
Russia and Saudi Arabia, a comparison. Gianfranco Polillo's analysis
On the one hand the "vertical of power", on the other "moderate Islam". On the one hand the progressive isolation, on the other the openness towards those who are willing, in that variegated world that refers to the precepts of the Prophet, to choose the path of modernization. On the one hand the return to the past in the name of Stalin and Peter the Great, on the other the profound innovation with respect to a centuries-old tradition. Putin and Mohammad bin Salman, the crown prince of Saudi Arabia. Two opposing worlds, yet in many ways symmetrical. But long ago destined to diverge.
What unites them is the gift of the Lord who has endowed their respective territories with immense natural riches. In that peninsula, squeezed between the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf, are concentrated the largest oil fields, second only to Venezuela and immense gas resources that place it in sixth place in the world ranking. In the frozen steppes of Siberia, the world's largest gas reserves and oil fields are only slightly lower than Saudi gas: eighth in the world. All this means that oil can be extracted in Russia, according to data provided by the IMF, at a cost of 3.2 dollars per barrel, which is a whisker (2.8 dollars) higher than that of the Saudi dynasty.
But unfortunately the analogies therefore end up giving rise to the profound differences of a management that moves at the antipodes. Moscow's income is pure, if we exclude the support given to the military-industrial combinat. Aimed at overcoming the limits of a petro-state, the Saudi one, especially thanks to the action of bin Salman : hastily condemned by the West for the story linked to the death of Jamal Khashogg i. The journalist killed in the Saudi Arabian consulate in Istanbul, on the orders, according to a UN complaint, of the crown prince himself. Undoubtedly reprehensible according to Western standards, but to be evaluated with a pinch of more realism, considering the clash taking place in that country between an old establishment and the innovators, often opposed by those who would like to accelerate change.
This, moreover, is the real difference between the two giants in the production of energy material. Russia, in the aftermath of the collapse of the Berlin Wall, had also tried its way to the market. A process that had to dismantle ossified production structures, to make a country, petrified for too long, a leap into the 21st century. Almost a decade of tears and blood. And a transition that was lost in the explosion of the underworld, up to a real failure, culminating in the default of a public debt, which, in a few years, had reached and exceeded 130 percent. Then in 2000, following the Yeltsin spill, some small progress, with Putin trying to bring order.
In the following decade the results had been seen. GDP had grown continuously at a rate of 6 percent per year. A sort of "economic miracle", as it was that of Italy after the war. In many ways, however: only manna from heaven. Nothing to do with the fatigue of those young ex-southern peasants, forced in Italy to transform themselves into workers in the great cathedrals of the "industrial triangle". In Russia the process had been simpler, thanks to the pull of an oil price that from 2000 to 2009 had gone from 10/20 to 120 dollars a barrel. Gigantic profits, which Putin had left in the pockets of his own magic circle: those shameless oligarchs, who had amazed the world with their opulent consumption.
Then the cycle, following the subprime crisis, then sovereign debt, ending with Covid, had changed. And the oil rent, as it had previously risen, has suffered a disastrous fall. The years of the fat cows were followed by those of hardship, and with them the risk that Putin himself would prove himself for what he actually was: a soldier, capable only of thinking in terms of war, but completely unable to carry out those political transformations. and institutional ones that, on the other hand, are gaining ground in a country, such as Saudi Arabia: in the past, the temporal gateway between contemporary history and the Middle Ages.
Where the differences? Especially in the method. The slow revolution of bin Salman is produced from above. The most important changes are those that affect both religious beliefs and the establishment. In the past, the primacy of religious rules was overwhelming, to the point that the police themselves had them as a code of conduct. But from 2016 onwards, that quickly changed. Today the primacy belongs to the law, which establishes the lawfulness of behavior. A new era: the post Wahhbi era. In which new elites have replaced those of an older tradition.
The main thrust derives from the program launched by the Crown Prince himself, targeting 2030. In which we speak of a moderate Islam, open to the world and to other religions. 70 percent of Saudis are young people under the age of 30 and cannot spend their lives fighting against the fundamentalists, who instead had to be made unable to harm since then. Hence a relentless struggle against opponents of this line: whether they were men of faith or simple members of the establishment. Especially if they belong to the Muslim Brotherhood movement.
The next step, aimed at creating a new ruling class, is inevitable. And here is the new role of Mohammed al-Issa, secretary of the World League of Muslims. He had been minister of justice for six years before rising to the top of the kingdom's most important religious organization. It was the beginning of a great renewal in the ranks of the galaxy of imams, far from painless. Conservatives such as the great Mufti of Saudi Arabia, Abdelaziz Al Sheikh, who tried to oppose, were thrown off the saddle and made it impossible to harm. Even if in private, but only in that area, they continued to advance criticisms of the opening of cinemas also to women or to mixed participation in concerts.
But the internal renewal, with the opening towards a different way of understanding the precepts of the holy scriptures, had not been the only consequence of that slow transition. It was religion itself that lost its centrality, giving space to customs, behaviors, ways of living closer to a secularism of a Western brand. Phenomenon that had led, in a relationship of cause and effect, to the affirmation of a class very different from the past. Lawyers, doctors, entrepreneurs, especially women, until yesterday excluded and discriminated against: it was the spread of these typical members of the middle class that determined the necessary acceleration, to the point of putting the old religious organizations in crisis. At the post of which new forms of association have arisen, more or less linked to the Monarchy and its innovative purposes.
But perhaps all of this would not have been possible if those interventions had not been preceded and followed by a vast program of economic reforms. Starting with the privatization of numerous companies operating both in the field of electricity production and in the delicate communication sector. Then the establishment of a Fund of 2,000 billion dollars, with the declared intention of reducing the country's dependence on oil production alone. Objective to be achieved by that date, as stated in the “Vision 2030” program. Aramco itself, the large oil company that in Saudi Arabia has the exclusive right in oil production, was listed on the stock exchange to sell part of its shares to the market.
And so here are the differences between the two major competitors who share the proceeds of black gold on the market. And not only that: since both countries are rich in other raw materials: from gold to uranium. But for Putin's Russia it will still not be enough. As it was not for that of Khrushchev during the second half of the twentieth century. Then, with the idea of the so-called "peaceful coexistence", the communists tried to shift the competition from the military to the economic and social one. A substantially stationary great power, if the URRS, thanks to this idea, managed to keep its power for years, until in 1989, with the fall of the Berlin Wall, all the knots came to a head. Putin, perhaps mindful of that defeat, would like to do as the old Prussia did. To conquer new territories with arms in the name of "Holy Mother Russia". He will not succeed. He may win a few battles, but in the end the stringent logic of his country's economic backwardness will put things right, and it will be a scorching new defeat.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/russia-e-arabia-saudita-analogie-e-differenze/ on Sun, 05 Jun 2022 08:16:35 +0000.