Weapons: Southeast Asia is giving up on Russia. Will China or South Korea enjoy it?
How will the arms import market change in Southeast Asia, hitherto dominated by Russian exports? What emerges from the analysis of the weekly The Economist
Dominated for decades by Russia , the arms market in South-East Asia is veering in other directions under the pressure of a war in Ukraine which, in addition to making any too close relationship with Moscow difficult by now, has highlighted all the limits of Russian war machine. According to the Economist , which has dedicated a recent article to this subject , it will not be China that takes advantage of this change of balance, penalized by its hegemonic ambitions, but a reliable exporting power such as South Korea.
Southeast Asia, a long-thriving market for Russian weapons
When one thinks of Southeast Asia, one associates it with the most dynamic emerging markets of the planet teeming with workforce and entrepreneurial initiatives; in short, a paradise for contemporary capitalism.
But the region is also known for being one of the epicenters of the great strategic competition between the US and China, which has recently been joined by India as a power with growing ambitions. Furthermore, despite the climate of apparent harmony that dominates the meetings of ASEAN (Association of South-East Asian Nations), the countries of the region look at each other with mutual suspicion and coexist in an atmosphere of rivalry.
These are the reasons that have made South-East Asia one of the most flourishing areas for the arms market, dominated until now above all by a large supplier such as Russia. Over the past two decades, Moscow has sold more than $11 billion in arms in this area, outperforming other players such as America, France and Germany.
As Ian Storey, an analyst at the Singapore-based iseas-Yusof Ishak Institute, points out to the Economist , Russia has managed to conquer a quasi-monopoly position by making hi-tech weapons available at affordable prices, accepting payments in the form of commodities and above all oiling these deals with a strong dose of corruption. It also goes without saying that the Kremlin turns a blind eye to the human rights situation of buyers.
Signs of crisis
For some years, however, Russian arms sales have slowed down drastically.
A country like Vietnam, which has long been Moscow's largest buyer, has put its military modernization program on hold. Indonesia has put its plan to buy Su-35 fighters on hold and the Philippines has done the same with a billion-dollar deal concerning the purchase of helicopters. Other countries in the region meanwhile have taken very seriously the sanctions that the US has been imposing against Moscow since 2017.
The outbreak of war in Ukraine had the effect of further reducing supplies from Russia. The reasons are many, highlights the British weekly: there are those who think of the reputational risk linked to the purchase of arms from what has now become a pariah state; there are those who have not failed to notice the inefficiency of the Russian war machine in the Ukrainian theater of war. Still others, while interested in renewing ties with Moscow, have to deal with the new sanctions imposed after the invasion and also strictly observed by neighboring countries such as Japan, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan.
Who will take over from Moscow?
The loss of positions of the Russian arms industry in Southeast Asia raises a question: who will take its place as the largest supplier to the countries of the region?
In theory, this role could be filled by China, which however is not well regarded in this area also due to its claims in the South China Sea which conflict with those of potential buyers such as Vietnam.
Then there is the quality factor, which has already created major problems for China itself. There is the case of the three submarines optioned by the generals who led Thailand in 2017, a deal that is faltering due to the Beijing industry's difficulties in designing suitable engines. And there is also the case of Myanmar whose junta is simply outraged by the poor quality of the jets taken over by a Chinese-Pakistani joint venture.
These holes in the water have not gone unnoticed among the ASEAN countries, which have necessarily started to look in other directions. One of these is India, which is in the process of signing an agreement with Indonesia for a batch of BrahMos cruise missiles.
South Korea is the new dominant player?
Yet no one is better placed than South Korea to take on the Russian legacy. The country already enjoys a great reputation as an exporting power of quality products in all technological sectors.
When it comes to selling weapons, Seoul can assert its competitive advantage of quality, reasonable prices, prompt delivery and credit offers.
South Korean players also have no problem transferring their technology to their customers. The exemplary case is that of Indonesia which, in the absence of a native naval industry, is building its own military fleet with the help of Seoul.
But if there is one factor that makes the Korean option attractive, underlines the British weekly, it is its position on the margins of the great geopolitical game that affects the region, a secluded position that can only be appreciated by countries that already have to juggle between the opposing Chinese and American thrusts.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/sud-est-asiatico-armi-russia/ on Tue, 28 Mar 2023 06:09:11 +0000.