What happens to the French electricity system
France's electricity system is unable to meet the national demand for energy, which has grown due to the cold, and is unable to export. All the consequences for Italy and beyond. Sergio Giraldo's analysis
With the arrival of cold weather we are witnessing what we predicted a few months ago, namely the serious difficulties of the French electricity system in meeting the domestic demand for energy. Due to delays in restoring nuclear facilities, Electricité de France is unable to produce enough energy to export to neighboring countries as usual. Indeed, France does not even have enough energy to make available to domestic consumers. For some time now, the transalpine country has been a net importer of electricity, but it has almost never happened that it imports simultaneously from all electricity borders (Germany, Switzerland, Spain, Great Britain, Belgium and Italy), which instead is happening in these days.
The question affects Italy closely: except for a few hours here and there, in the days between 6 and 11 December last year, our country steadily exported energy not only to France, but also to Switzerland, another country from which Italy usually imports.
Over an annual period, Italy is a net importer from both these borders, and it is thanks to this that the Italian electricity system is able to balance its load: purchases from abroad in fact satisfy around 13% of the national requirement. But in these cold days, France has to rely on neighboring countries, resulting in a deficit towards electricity systems against which it usually has a clear energy surplus, such as the Italian and Swiss ones.
In the six days considered, our country exported around 88 gigawatt hours of electricity to France, importing only 9.2 from there (net balance for Italy +78.8 GWh). To Switzerland, Italy instead exported a good 133 GWh, importing only 18 (Italy net balance +115 GWh). However, the Italian energy that transits through Switzerland also ends up in France: again in the period between 6 and 11 December, the Confederation supplied France with 174 GWh, importing 73 from there (CH net balance +101 GWh) .
The total of Italian exports on the French-Swiss border, therefore, is 221 GWh in six days (net balance on the border 193.8 GWh). Notable quantities. It should be clarified that exports are activated because the price conditions allow it, indeed they impose it. The algorithms that compile the order of merit lead to an outcome of high prices across the border, given the existing supply-demand imbalance in France. It is therefore normal for electricity production in border areas to be activated, obviously at advantageous prices. As an indication, considering gas prices, the cost of CO2 permits and hourly energy prices in the Northern area, the unit margin obtained by producers should be between 42 and 48 €/MWh.
An upheaval, this, which we had foreseen without particular divining skills, but only considering the plans for the recommissioning of the French nuclear plants in September. The plan at the time was overestimated, so much so that EdF itself revised it downwards in mid-October. However, the new version of the program highlighted the lack of at least 5,000 MW of power in this period, until mid-February. With the first real cold weather, the problem emerged, also because in France the ceiling on bills wanted by President Emmanuel Macron does not discourage household consumption, so demand is growing while supply is lagging behind. What we had called the Franco-German black hole is starting to manifest itself. The effects can also be seen on the absurd prices that are being recorded in Great Britain, where in a few hours prices have exceeded 5,000 €/MWh.
There are many variables involved, starting with the presence of wind in Germany, which influences the wind production of that country and therefore makes it able, or not, to satisfy internal demand and consequently to export to France.
Now, however, although France needs to absorb energy from neighboring countries in order not to go into blackouts and although it pays good money to do so, as we have seen, this collides with the need to save gas.
The energy sent across the border is not, in fact, destined for Italian consumption, but abroad, and the plants that produce electricity in Italy are almost exclusively natural gas ones. Therefore, it is true that exports are advantageous for operators, but when this is activated it triggers a consumption of gas for thermoelectric purposes which would not exist if France were in equilibrium or even exported its nuclear energy. To understand each other: the lack of French nuclear production translates into gas consumption in Italy. For those 221 million kilowatt hours sent to France and Switzerland, the producers used about 42 million cubic meters of gas.
This conflicts with the savings plan imposed by the European Union, which instead requires a reduction in consumption. The previous government even issued a decree law to bring old coal-fired plants back into operation to avoid consuming gas for thermoelectric purposes and there is a gas saving plan that affects families and businesses. Now, however, we are consuming the gas we thought we had saved, to give electricity to France. Here's what we meant by the Franco-German black hole: French consumption absorbs resources across borders and unbalances the continent, while the volatility of German wind availability maximizes uncertainty.
The continental electricity system is facing an epochal test, one step away from darkness and once again, given the intolerable rhetoric of the mediocre Brussels paper machines, one can do nothing but hope for the mildness of winter.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/energia/sistema-elettrico-francia-esportazioni-italia/ on Sun, 25 Dec 2022 07:26:53 +0000.