What to buy with an increased defense budget?
Here are some indicative examples of sectors that could and should be affected by the increase in defense spending. The in-depth study by Aurelio Giansiracusa of Ares-Defense Observatory
The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine has dramatically turned the clock back in time, overcoming even the darkest moments of the Cold War which from 1945 to 1989 froze Europe and North America to Asia.
Today, we are witnessing a conflict of a conventional type, a scenario that in the West from 1989 onwards has tried to forget or, at least, to "water down", orienting their military tools to operate in asymmetrical conflicts, aiming more and more to resort to “intelligent” weapons, Special Forces, remotely piloted aircraft, robotic vehicles, cyber defense that should first support and replace the human element in the near future.
But a few hours of violent and harsh symmetrical warfare (clashes between organized units armed with regular armies) brought everyone (or almost all) back to reality; a conventional conflict we were no longer used to and the fear of a nuclear confrontation.
Above all, Russia has returned to being the main threat to NATO, after thirty years of pseudo-lethargy, putting in the attic in a few days many other issues to which we seemed to have become accustomed (crisis in North Africa and the Middle East to remain linked to our scenarios).
INCREASING THE DEFENSE OF NATO COUNTRIES
In this increasingly heated climate, the main NATO countries, or rather almost all of NATO, have decided to increase their defense budgets, because the hypothesis of a large-scale conventional confrontation is no longer a remote scenario or only of school.
Germany, through the mouth of its Chancellor Scholz, at the height of a dramatic speech before the Bundestag, announced that it will create a hyperbolic fund of about 100 billion euros (112 billion dollars) to modernize and strengthen its Armed Forces. in 2022 they already enjoy a “monster” budget of over 50 billion euros.
Similar speeches were made by President Macron for France and Prime Minister Boris Johnson for the United Kingdom who announced their intention to increase their respective defense budgets.
Similar stances are recorded almost everywhere in NATO, from distant Canada, to Spain, to Greece and to the countries of Eastern Europe, those most exposed to the effects of the war in progress and with which Russia has the worst relations.
THE WORDS OF DRAGONS
In this context, the words spoken by Prime Minister Mario Draghi before the assembled Chambers are recorded, on the occasion of the report on the war between Russia and Ukraine, who hoped, given the current situation, to be able to increase defense spending, attempting to hook the 2% of GDP threshold, albeit in a diluted time frame, since the threat posed by Russia makes it necessary to invest more in defense spending than has been invested so far.
Following these important declarations, the Minister of Defense Lorenzo Guerini indicated that his department in agreement with the Government is working on a hypothesis to increase the defense budget.
In addition to the growth in spending, Minister Guerini hopes for a reflection and an update of the organizational model of the Armed Forces, as well as on the projection of the Italian military instrument abroad, on our participation in international missions and on our role in NATO and in European Defense of which he hopes for a real strengthening.
HOW MUCH ITALY SPENDS ON DEFENSE
Indeed, Italy, since Lorenzo Guerini took over the defense department, has steadily increased its defense budget, actually underfed until then, bringing it to 25.8 billion euros a year in 2022 (1.4 % of GDP), up 3.4% compared to 2021 and 19.6% compared to 2019.
In this "new" defense budget, after years of underfunding that have created problems for the operation and modernization of the Armed Forces, an important part is represented by investment expenses equal to 8.27 billion euro (level never reached before) with a tendential increase of almost 14% compared to 2021 and a good 74% compared to 2019. In practice, an additional billion has been assigned to investment spending compared to 2021, which becomes 3.5 billion more compared to 2019.
THE HYPOTHESIS
There are hypotheses of an increase, albeit in fifteen years, from the current 25.8 billion euros to 38 billion euros, a truly substantial figure for our country that had never gone beyond "the pillars of Hercules" of the twenty-five billion. of euro for Defense and now it seems to aim to reach and exceed the threshold of thirty billion euro for military spending. In terms of GDP in 2022, the psychological line of 2%, which is now just over half a percentage point, would probably also break through.
It is obvious that with such an increase, stabilized over time, the prospects for the Italian Defense would change by a lot, because it would have the right economic levers to modernize and strengthen the operational, logistical and training capabilities of the Armed Forces.
WHAT TO DO
But how to intervene, having a more consistent defense budget available?
First of all, by also rebalancing operating expenses which are dangerously downsized to make room for investment expenses. Exercise is just as important as investment because it makes it possible to keep means and resources destined for Defense in line with acceptable rates; in the context of the general review of the Defense, the operational targets considered acceptable up to now will also change and, therefore, the operating expenditure will have to be increased to achieve the new objectives that will be required. To give an example, if to date it is considered (or believed) to be sufficient to keep one third of the fleet of helicopters, fighters or tanks in operational conditions, it is likely that in the near future this threshold will be raised to 40% or more for assets. more valuable.
The real “stone guest” of the Italian Defense budget is represented by the personnel expenditure chapter which absorbs more and more substantial resources over the years since the decision was made for the complete professionalization of the Armed Forces. This is due both to the increasing recourse of the Defense to keep staff on permanent duty even short-term staff, and to the difficulty of passing Defense personnel into other administrations (also due to the peculiar institution of the Auxiliary), failing to obtain proper system power supply; in other words, the Armed Forces are aging more and more and the corrective measures taken so far do not bring significant improvements.
What to do then? A first move could be to restore and strengthen the reserve of places in the FF.OO. for those who at the end of the short and fixed stop in the FF.AA. intend to transit through the security sector. Moreover, also for the FF.OO. (including the Arma dei Carabinieri which belongs to the Defense) the problem of aging personnel is increasingly felt and it is necessary to intervene in a coordinated manner between the two Departments. To date, the reserve of places in favor of volunteers in the recruitment of public administrations to the extent of 30%, (20% for local police officers) while the reserve percentage in the competitions announced by the Ministry of Defense is 50%. Therefore, it is evident that the Defense absorbs up to 50% of its volunteers in fixed stops with cascading effects on the Armed Forces. whose personnel now have an average age dangerously higher than that of other NATO countries.
THE RETURN OF THE MILITARY LEVER?
Many will wonder if the writer is hoping for a return to military conscription. The answer is no because, despite the massive return of the threat from Eastern Europe, times have changed and above all armaments require well-trained and trained personnel (as well as being motivated) which is rather difficult to achieve with conscript personnel ( at the time the exceptions were just a few on the general mass) because the service should be restored at 12 months, as it was before the reform at 10 months, and because the figure of the Volunteer in Annual Stop already exists. Therefore, it could be possible to act on the VFA, expanding the places in competitions provided annually for the Armed Forces, with in perspective a preferential title for the internal competition at the Ferma Short, providing for a greater use of these volunteers in all departments, lowering the ' average age of the staff employed. To encourage enrollment, it is possible to think of forms of support for studies (as occurs in North American countries) and / or work (as occurs in France and Great Britain) for those who, at the end of the first year, pass through a short stay. Furthermore, the VFAs (together with the VFBs no longer in service) could guarantee the supply of a Reserve, a need that can no longer be postponed given the increasingly assiduous commitments to which our Armed Forces abroad and at home are called, to support (in some cases replacing by the will of the Policy ..) of the Police. This continuous employment in Italy and abroad increases the wear rate of vehicles and materials and engages men extremely. A Reserve could loosen this non-virtuous circle, allowing the departments to breathe and the means to be restored with less trouble and to a greater extent, being able to take on the tasks currently carried out in Italy by the departments of the Armed Forces.
WHAT TO BUY
What to buy with an increased defense budget? The needs are certainly not lacking and first of all those joint forces should be satisfied but not only; here we will limit ourselves to indicating roughly the sectors that could or should be interested in the opinion of this writer:
a) Space: the space component is essential for obtaining up-to-date intelligence information, for protected communications and, in perspective, for anti-missile defense in terms of early warning even from hypersonic missiles. Therefore, it will be necessary to aim at obtaining satellites with h24 observation systems that are increasingly sophisticated and resistant to cyber attacks as well as develop and fine-tune a launcher that can be spent at low cost (even by plane) for the launch of constellations in low orbit of nano and micro satellites for temporary needs.
b) Cyber security and cyber warfare; both components will have to grow in order to equip the country with a cyber defense structure against increasingly dangerous external attacks affecting sensitive national networks and IT systems.
c) Multi-layer area defense; here come into play long-range sighting radar systems, satellites and effectors that must be integrated on naval platforms, on land and in the air, to optimize the resources available today and tomorrow to cope with cruise missiles, including supersonic, short ballistic and medium range and hypersonic perspective.
d) National Deep Strike capacity; on this "front" it will be necessary to act quickly at least for the Navy, embarking cruise missiles on ships and submarines, alongside the Storm Shadow component of the Air Force, now undergoing modernization; for the Army, one could think of equipping it in the short term with Precision Strike Missile that the US Army is developing.
e) Reconstruction and strengthening of the heavy component of the Army; here the interventions are urgent and must aim at the modernization, replacement and enhancement of the "heavy" component, now made up of 200 Ariete tanks and as many Dardo Infantry Fighting Vehicles; if the former can still be modernized but the program must be accelerated, a different story is for the Dardo, an outdated vehicle that must urgently be replaced; in addition to the replacement, the expansion of the line must also be planned, reconstructing a third heavy Brigade, also with a view to the tank line which in the near future must, however, be equipped with a new type of tank.
f) Strengthening of the land artillery; the primary need is the replacement of the FH-70 howitzers / guns with self-propelled artillery systems that could also be self-supported with armored cabin for the protection of the service team equipped with semi or automatic loading system and enhance the GMLRS capacity today limited to about twenty specimens.
g) Strengthening of heavy transport and combat helicopter lines; here, in the opinion of the writer, there is a need to increase the Chinooks available today because the current sixteen specimens are not sufficient to cover all the needs between commitments in Italy and abroad; as far as combat helicopters are concerned, the 48 AW-249s that will replace the AW-129s risk being limited in numbers.
h) Air transport capacity; the current line of C-130J must be integrated with transport aircraft that allow to carry a greater load to the same or longer distance of the Super Hercules; both active and passive aviation refueling capability is also desirable.
i) Reconstruction of an anti-submarine and anti-ship patrol and contrast component; the need is urgent given the current situation in the Mediterranean and in the surrounding basins of our interest, given the large-scale return of the submarine threat and given the increasingly constant presence of the Russian Navy in the Mediterranean waters and in prospective marine ones our competitors;
l) Increase of submarines; the U212 NFS or Near Future Submarine program is crucial for the renewal of the Navy submarine line; currently there are two + two boats with delivery times expected from 2027 to 2031; probably, the new strategic framework will require an increase in the number of boats to be built in order to have more submarines available to meet the needs.
m) Ships for transport and disembarkation and logistics; here too it is hoped an acceleration of the program relating to the new LPDs which will have to take the place of the current "Saints" class with a view to strengthening the Projection Force from the Sea within the relevant National Capacity, as well as the finalization of the order for the third Logistic Support Ship to complete the replacement program of the current Etna, Vesuvio and Stromboli team refuellers, the latter two completely outdated and with over forty years of navigation on the keel.
n) Proceed with the formation of the Joint Squadron for the management of the F-35Bs on land and at sea embarked on the Cavour aircraft carrier and on the LHD Trieste, as well as accelerating and completing the deliveries of the F-35A / B to the Air Force and the Navy, completing ( and training where necessary) the equipment of advanced weapons.
o) strengthen the RPAS lines, equipping them with armament and providing for the use of these platforms also for maritime surveillance and reconnaissance tasks as well as contributing to the anti-submarine fight and the contrast of surface ships.
p) development of new technologies using the lever of the National Military Research Plan.
These are just indicative examples of sectors that could and should be affected by the increase in defense spending. In the near future, with the updated Multiannual Planning Document, we will have the first indications on the level of expenditure and on which programs the Defense will focus its interventions, always bearing in mind that the current situation no longer allows for further procrastination of programs that have become indispensable.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/italia-spesa-difesa-aumento/ on Sun, 06 Mar 2022 08:33:59 +0000.