What will change in Russia after the tarantella between Prigozhin and Putin
Report, analyses, comments and doubts on the end of the march of Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner group, on Moscow. What will happen now? Is this really the beginning of the end for Putin?
The march of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner company of Russian mercenaries, stopped 200 km from Moscow.
After months of increasingly violent criticism of military establishments, Prigozhin launched the challenge directly to President Vladimir Putin by penetrating Russian territory with his militias apparently, and incredibly, without encountering any resistance. Until, in the evening, he announced his retreat "to avoid a Russian bloodbath".
For Russia, and for the world, it was a dramatic day in which the country looked as if it could plunge into civil war. In a speech to the nation in the morning, the Kremlin head had called Prigozhin's action a "stab in the back" to the troops fighting in Ukraine. While the intelligence services accused him of starting an "armed civil conflict".
– Read also: Because with the revolt of the Wagner group in Russia Putin's war on Ukraine will end. The analyst Sisci speaks
He did not say exactly what he wanted, but few believe in individual action, while several observers say they are convinced that a political showdown is at stake in which Prigozhin is only a pawn.
WHAT HAPPENED TO PRIGOZHIN'S "COUP", IN SHORT
After accusing the Moscow army of having bombed the positions of his men, the head of Wagner announced that he had captured the city of Rostov-on-Don, the most important center close to the Ukrainian border, taking possession without firing a shot of the airport, the military headquarters and that of the internal secret services, the FSB. The situation gradually became more dramatic as the hours went by, with the local authorities who began to signal an advance of just over 20,000 Wagner militiamen northwards without anyone intervening. First the province of Voronezh, then that of Lipetsk, about 450 kilometers south of Moscow.
In the evening, when the capital now seemed to be in the sights, the twist. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko held a negotiation "which lasted all day and in agreement with Putin" during which Wagner's boss would be given "absolutely advantageous and acceptable guarantees" in exchange for the withdrawal of his men. With Prigozhin himself who immediately afterwards announced the turnaround and the return of the militiamen to their base camps in the south of the country.
PUTIN'S SPEECH AND PRIGOZHIN'S REPLY
By mid-morning, Putin had appeared on television for no more than five minutes accusing his (former?) ally of "betrayal" for personal ambitions. "All those who have chosen the path of betrayal will be punished and will be held accountable," warned the president, who seemed to be alluding to the possible role of other characters besides Prigozhin. The latter had responded by stating that Putin was "deeply in error", warning that none of his men would surrender.
Subsequently, some sites spread rumors that Putin had fled Moscow, but Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov flatly denied them. The authorities suspended Wagner's social media accounts, but not on Telegram, where Prigozhin continued undisturbed to launch his proclamations. Not against Putin personally, but against Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov. While the Chechen commander Ramzan Kadyrov assured that he was ready to make his forces available to "crush" the rebellion".
HOW MOSCOW PREPARED FOR WAGNER'S ARRIVAL
Throughout the day the nervousness in Moscow has been building for the possible arrival of Wagner. Police forces were deployed in key points of the city, while videos broadcast on Telegram channels showed armored vehicles entering the capital from the south.
Mayor Serghei Sobyanin called on the population to limit travel and announced that Monday will be a non-working day. The Russian Foreign Ministry instead issued a warning to Western countries not to take advantage of the crisis to "achieve their Russophobic aims" and reiterated that the operation in Ukraine continues and that "all objectives will be achieved". But Putin closed this incredible day again, thanking Lukashenko for the mediation and "for the work done".
DOUBTS ABOUT PRIGOZHIN'S MARCH
The most important city in southern Russia near the Ukrainian border taken without firing a shot and just over 20,000 militiamen set off apparently without encountering resistance to conquer Moscow, the capital of the largest country in the world and one of the major nuclear powers global.
The feat of Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner, christened 'march for justice', is incredible. And it raises more than one question. Is it the individual work of a character who has become overwhelmed until he loses his sense of reality or is it the action of someone who has superior powers behind him? If the first hypothesis, that of the suicidal undertaking of a madman, is discarded, the possibility remains that Prigozhin moved with the support of influential figures, and at this point two other alternative scenarios open up: the head of Wagner is used by someone at a high level – perhaps a group of oligarchs disgruntled with the progress of the conflict in Ukraine – to eliminate President Vladimir Putin? Or is the Kremlin itself using a long-time trusted ally for purposes that are currently unclear? Someone thinks of a general mobilization, otherwise difficult for the population to digest, or of the possibility for Putin himself to present himself – in the eyes of the Russians but also of the whole world – as the true moderate leader capable of curbing extremist impulses. Or even a move to torpedo the hated (by Prigozhin) Defense Minister Shoigu: it would have been promised, but there is no confirmation, in the agreement brokered by Lukashenko.
Only in the evening did Prigozhin announce his withdrawal, saying he had arrived no more than 200 kilometers from Moscow. But a few hours earlier, in his five-minute address to the nation, Putin presented himself as the man needed to hold together a country on the brink of a civil war which, like a century ago, after the Bolshevik revolution, could lead to the shame of defeat on the battlefield. “This blow was also dealt to the Russian people in 1917 – said the tsar – when they were fighting the First World War, when the victory was practically stolen from them. We will not allow such a situation to happen again."
However, Putin is keen to give an image of security and normality. His spokesman Dmitry Peskov has denied a rumor spread by the independent newspaper Novaya Gazeta according to which the Russian leader took off on board a plane that took off from Moscow's Vnukovo airport and headed for St. Petersburg before disappearing from radar tracks. The president "is working normally in the Kremlin," Peskov said.
WHAT UKRAINE THINKS
Prigozhin's theory of individual action, which could lead to Putin's overthrow, is instead espoused by Ukraine and Russian opposition figures in the Kremlin. “Russia's weakness is evident, it is weakness on a massive scale,” Volodymyr Zelensky exulted. Denis 'White rex' Nikitin, head of the Russian Volunteer Corps, a Russian armed organization that fights with Ukrainian forces and has claimed responsibility for incursions into Russian territory in recent months, has also openly sided with Prigozhin.
“I sincerely root for Prigozhin's mission because I have long said that the bloody Kremlin regime can be overthrown only in one way, only with an armed uprising,” Nikitin said. Of the same opinion is Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the Russian oligarch who took sides against Putin who spent 10 years in prison and now lives in London. For them, there is no suspicion of a possible mastermind behind Prigozhin's – interrupted – advance, nor any doubt that the D'Annunzio-style enterprise of the head of Wagner could pave the way for a better and more democratic Russia.
WHAT MEDVEDEV THINKS
Of diametrically opposite opinion, of course, Dmitri Medvedev. The deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council has called for the participation of foreigners and elite units of the Russian armed forces in the planning of the Wagner militias mutiny. And above all, he had warned that if nuclear weapons were to end up in the hands of "criminals" it would not only be Russia that would have to tremble, but the whole world.
ISPI ANALYSIS
It is no coincidence that Prigozhin's insurrection began with the conquest of Rostov-on-Don, the main city of southern Russia and capital of the homonymous region bordering eastern Ukraine. About a million people live there and it is an important river port a thousand kilometers southwest of Moscow. Most importantly, it is the headquarters of the 8th Army and the Southern Federal District of Russia. Prigozhin has released a video in which he claims to be monitoring military sites in the city and with them, the center of Russian operations in Ukraine.
Prigozhin assures that his militias "didn't have to fire a shot" to advance. However, it is not clear what the leader of the mercenaries got in exchange for the reverse.
Is Putin alone?
Significantly, in the feverish hours following Prigozhin's announcement, some of the Wagner chief's key allies walked away from or condemned his insurrection. These include General Sergei Surovikin, known in the West as 'General Armageddon' for his destruction of the Syrian city of Aleppo. Surovikin, the former commander of the Russian ground forces in Ukraine, very popular among the country's ultranationalists whose demotion last year had caused vibrant online protests, urged Wagner's militiamen to cease all opposition to the Russian military leadership and to return to barracks. “I urge you to stop,” he said in a video message posted on Telegram. “Together with you, we walked a difficult path, we fought together, we took risks, we suffered losses, we won together. We are of the same blood, we are warriors. So I urge you to stop and obey the will of the president. The enemy is just waiting for the situation to worsen in our country."
Similarly, Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, Prigozhin's accomplice last year in pointing the finger at Russian military leaders contemptuously calling them "peacetime generals", distanced himself from his friend, saying he was ready to help the Kremlin “to put an end to the rebellion”. Influential pro-war Russian military bloggers and some security agencies, such as the FSB intelligence service, also denounced the Wagner chief, siding with the Kremlin.
What happens now?
There is no question that the Prigozhin mutiny amounts to the biggest political crisis Putin has faced in his quarter-century as Russia's leader. "It's a huge blow to Putin's legitimacy," observes Russian opponent Mikhail Khodorkovsky, according to whom Wagner's insurrection "will weaken the Kremlin leader." The very fact that someone may have challenged him will in fact, according to Khodorkovsky, increase doubts about his seizure of power. But while the world watches the events of the last few hours with bated breath, it is not yet clear what conclusion Prigozhin's about-face will lead to.
If Kiev sees "a window of opportunity" in what is happening in Russia and Kaja Kallas, the prime minister of Estonia, announces that her country has tightened border controls with Russia, in Europe the most widespread attitude is of caution for issues, many repeat, "internal to Russia". Meanwhile, unconfirmed rumors refer to the Kremlin's plane in flight for hours with the transponder turned off which various 'friendly' countries have allegedly denied landing. “Vladimir Putin is in Moscow and working” is the Kremlin's curt response. But the feeling that something is inevitably about to change in the Kremlin has never been more real.
The comment by Aldo Ferrari, Head of the ISPI Russia, Caucasus and Central Asia Observatory
“The events of the last few hours in Russia are on the one hand surprising and very serious, on the other they are the result of unprecedented circumstances: never before, and in a highly authoritarian country like today's Russia, has it happened that a militia managed to assume such power as to allow it to rival the Defense General Staff. The open confrontation shows how Vladimir Putin, who so far seemed to control the frictions between the head of Wagner and his generals, actually doesn't have the situation in hand. Everything will depend on what happens in the next 48 hours and how the army units will react to the challenge opened by Prigozhin. Even if the one launched by the head of Wagner seems more like the gamble of an unscrupulous gambler than the plan of a strategist."
THE COMMENT OF DAVID PETRAEUS (EX-CIA)
“I think the vanguards of the group were 60-90 minutes away. Not the entire force, fewer than 5,000, but I was keeping an eye on the reactions of all the security forces to see if they remained loyal to Putin: the army, the air force, the special forces, the Rosgvardiya National Guard, the 'FSB, the forces of the Interior Ministry, the Kremlin and the Chechens, in short, the set of elements controlled by the siloviki, the leaders of the security establishment. If some of them had supported the Wagner group, a real civil war would have ensued." General David Petraeus, former head of the CIA, said so in an interview with Corriere della Sera .
“Now the situation is very confusing. But it could be that Prigozhin got scared and realized that he forced Putin to direct all forces against him,” he says. “I think Wagner herself engaged in this action only 48 hours earlier. So far Prigozhin's tendency has been to maintain autonomy but also to obtain additional resources – he underlines – And it is only when Shoigu announced that all irregular forces would have to sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense that Prigozhin felt like forcing his hand. I think he was hoping to avoid it. But the deadline was near, at the end of the month, and so he embarked on this enterprise. I find it unlikely that the Ukrainians are working with a person who has been so brutal, and who doesn't want to end the war."
IS THIS THE BEGINNING OF PUTIN'S END? THE COMMENT OF PODOLYAK (UKRAINE)
"However it goes, this is the beginning of Putin's end." This was stated in an interview with Repubblica , by the adviser to the Presidential Office of Ukraine Mykhailo Podolyak. "It could only end like this, we expected it… The next twenty-four hours will be decisive for the fate of the Federation", he underlines.
”If Prigozhin achieves his goal, part of the regular army will follow him. And this, in our opinion, will bring the end of the war much closer,” Podyak says. ”For us – he notes – at the moment nothing has changed, the counter-offensive is going on. Of course, it is inevitable that internal turmoil will divert the attention of the Russian military on the front line, which is forced to assess what is happening behind it. If in Moscow they decide to withdraw part of the troops deployed in Ukraine to suppress the Wagner uprising, we will see a strong acceleration of our counterattack".
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/prigozhin-putin-cosa-cambia-russia/ on Sun, 25 Jun 2023 06:10:02 +0000.