Who are the anti-Trump people in the Republican Party. Economist Report
Possible names and scenarios if former US President Donald Trump withdraws or is not nominated by the Republican Party as a candidate in the 2024 presidential elections. The Economist article
The Republican Party will confirm its candidate for the 2024 presidential election at its convention in July. The outcome seems almost certain: Donald Trump, former president and populist firebrand, has a firm grip on the party and is well ahead in the polls. But the situation could change.
While the chances of another candidate stealing his crown are slim, many are trying (some perhaps hoping for a consolation prize, such as a senior post in a second Trump administration).
The former president is facing several criminal cases. So far they don't seem to hinder him or help any of his challengers. But a presidential bid isn't won until it's won.
The Economist is following the race. Here you'll find our collection of the latest polls, including the most likely winner if Trump drops out, as well as short guides on each candidate and key dates in the contest. To find out more, check out our 2024 US election hub and follow contests elsewhere with our Taiwan and UK election poll trackers.
WHAT HAPPENS IF DONALD TRUMP RETIRES?
Trump faces four criminal trials on felony charges, which will overlap with the Republican primary season and the general election campaign. None of them are likely to conclude before the primaries end, and even if he is convicted, the courts are unlikely to jail him or bar him from running. But regular court dates will impact his campaign schedule, and trials could drive Republican voters away from him (even if his previous court appearances have only strengthened his base).
If Trump dropped out, who would be most likely to win? The polls below show what the race might look like without him, taking into account the second preferences of Trump supporters.
KEY DATES IN 2024
The nominee will be crowned with great fanfare on stage at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, which begins July 15, 2024. But the nominee will likely be confirmed before then. Voting begins with the Iowa caucuses in January.
January 15 – Iowa Caucuses
Traditionally the first call for nominations, the Iowa caucuses are a strange and complex event. Many candidates are betting big on Iowa or New Hampshire, hoping to quickly make a splash in a small area.
January 23 – New Hampshire primary
The New Hampshire primary, along with the Iowa caucuses, tends to narrow the field. If a candidate fails to establish himself in one of these states, he will hardly be able to do so elsewhere.
March 4 – Trump's federal trial begins
Potentially the most serious of Trump's criminal trials, he will face prosecutors' charges on March 4 that he attempted to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election.
March 5 – Super Tuesday
The most important day of the nomination race, with more than a dozen states, including California and Texas, going to the polls. If Trump still has a strong lead, the race will be practically over.
July 15 – Republican National Convention
Typically a four-day event to choose the party's nominee, the convention is where the party formally selects its candidate for president and vice president.
THE MAIN CANDIDATES
Donald Trump – Former President
Donald Trump's extraordinary campaign follows his extraordinary tenure as America's 45th president, which ended when his supporters staged an armed attack on the Capitol. His precise role in inciting the attack and a broader effort to overturn the results of the 2020 election, which he lost, led to two criminal indictments. He faces two more, for a total of 91 offences. The 77-year-old former businessman denies any wrongdoing. Trump's campaign pairs familiar culture war themes (building a wall, the "gender madness of the left") with new grievances (against the lawyers who prosecute his cases and the judges who review them). He has an advantage in the Republican race.
Ron DeSantis – Governor of Florida
Ron DeSantis, governor of Florida, entered the primary with momentum, money and confidence that he could beat Trump. The right-wing Republican served for six years in the House of Representatives, but made his name as governor, when he fought against "wokeism", eliminated mask mandates and delayed school closures during the Covid pandemic -19. The 45-year-old father of three young children, whose wife often joins him on the campaign trail, has turned out to be a problematic candidate. His poll numbers have plummeted.
Nikki Haley – Former governor of South Carolina
Nikki Haley, the daughter of Indian immigrants, worked at her parents' high-fashion boutique before running for state office. She became the first female governor of South Carolina, her home state. She served as Trump's ambassador to the UN but, given her appeal among relatively moderate, educated Republicans, she has since become a favorite of Trump's detractors. During the election campaign he criticized his chaotic leadership style, his comments on Israel (too harsh) and China (not harsh enough) and, more subtly, his age. The 51-year-old insists America deserves "a new generation of leaders."
Vivek G. Ramaswamy – Founder of a pharmaceutical company
Vivek Ramaswamy, 38, an entrepreneur in the biotechnology sector, presents himself as a brazen and unconventional outsider. The son of immigrants from southern India, he has written books on topics such as "woke capitalism", hypocritical and dangerous for American national identity. Ultra-conservative, he shares many of Trump's political positions. Enthusiasm for his campaign appeared to peak in the summer, after his flamboyant performance at the first Republican debate. At the end of November its political director left to join Trump's campaign.
(Excerpt from the foreign press review edited by eprcomunicazione )
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/chi-sono-gli-anti-trump-nel-partito-repubblicano-report-economist/ on Sun, 17 Dec 2023 06:53:13 +0000.