Who works for a Unicredit-Mps-Bpm triangle
Two scenarios are emerging in the Italian banking system: a Banco Bpm-Bper merger or a Unicredit-Mps-Bpm triangle. Facts, numbers, rumors
Indiscretions chasing each other, unions in alarm, boards discussing: all according to script the new round of banking risk, which starts after having archived Intesa Sanpaolo's Opas on Ubi and which already has as its protagonist the Unicredit of the new CEO, Andrea Orcel. Supporting partners, more or less luxury, Banco Bpm, Bper, Carige. And then – only in the part of the prey – Monte dei Paschi di Siena (Mps) for which the deadline agreed with the European DG Comp expires at the end of the year to remove the Treasury, currently owner of 64% of the capital, from the shareholding structure.
WHAT IS ORCEL APPLIANCE IN UNICREDIT?
Under observation, as we said, the newly arrived Orcel from whose moves – already in the coming months – we will understand the settlement of the national banking system. In the Messaggero , Rosario Dimito reports that the new number one of Unicredit – after the internal reorganization expected by the end of the month and in parallel with the drafting of the plan – could prepare an autumn intervention on Banco Bpm "because his network would allow Gae Aulenti to go up from 4% market share in Lombardy. Unicredit-Bpm would have a capital benefit of 3.6 billion ".
In the meantime, however, according to sources familiar with the dossier, "the scheme that the Treasury would like to propose to Unicredit would be to buy 51% of Mps at almost symbolic values, remaining with 13%". At this point, the Orcel bank would launch the takeover bid at prices close to the purchase price of the majority, which the Ministry of Economy and Finance would not adhere to, so as to support Unicredit in the restructuring process "to be carried out in the three years allowed by the law on tax credits to take advantage of the capital benefits by incorporating the institution ".
Obviously, all this through a negotiation with the trade unions to manage the redundancies so as to make them "reabsorbed by the State in some of its activities but also by the sale of some assets, such as the network in the center south in favor of Mcc-Popolare di Bari, not to incur Antitrust complaints ".
WHAT WILL THE THIRD POLO BE?
As stated by the journalist expert in banking matters, Fabio Pavesi , already a signature of the Sole 24 Ore , in his speech on Fabi TV , certainly a third pole is missing in the Italian credit system since after Intesa Sanpaolo – with over 1,000 billion assets – and Unicredit – with 900 billion of assets – Banco Bpm is far behind with 180 billion of assets. Basically, "there is no third major bank that can stabilize the market". The "most awaited and most logical" merger, according to Pavesi, would be that between Banco Bpm and Bper to reach a group of 300 billion in assets but it is necessary to see what are the plans of the new Unicredit led by Andrea Orcel after the management "certainly not brilliant ”by Jean Pierre Mustier and his predecessors which led to a loss of revenue this year.
Therefore, if Montepaschi seems destined, at the behest of the government, to end up in the building in Piazza Gae Aulenti, however, it is necessary to see what happens inside: it seems in fact that it is a “perspective not appreciated by the shareholders”. For this reason, the new CEO would ask for freedom of movement and would also aim for something else: Banco Bpm or Mediobanca, from which Unicredit left in recent years. This would lead it to “strengthen itself in consumer credit, corporate banking and wealth management”.
THE GAME OF DTA PRO UNICREDIT-MPS
In the meantime, as mentioned, the executive is working to encourage mergers with the Sostegni Bis decree, which will be brought to the Council of Ministers next Thursday. In fact, a series of changes to the legislation on DTA (Deferred tax assets) has been included in the draft, i.e. the tax losses that can become tax credit in the event of a merger with other banks upon payment of commissions, deductible for IRES and IRAP purposes, equal to to 25% of the amount. Palazzo Chigi, with a provision in the latest budget law, had allowed the transformation by mergers within the current year. The deadline, however, was then postponed to June 30, 2022, "a decisive change because it is intended to give more room for maneuver to all bankers to set up the mergers, since it usually takes 5-6 months of preparatory work before approval shareholders' meeting ".
From this perspective, it would also be expected that, by acquiring control of an institution within the first six months of 2022, it would be possible to integrate it in the following three years during which to benefit from tax advantages. A delay in the times that, in fact, would seem to be a help for Unicredit on the road to Siena.
The second important change envisaged by the provision concerns the convertible DTA threshold which would rise from 2% to 3% of the total assets of the smallest bank involved in the merger.
WHAT THEY THINK AT BANCO BPM
Also according to what Il Messaggero reports, the possibility of a merger with Unicredit would have been discussed two days ago also during the board of directors of Banco Bpm. However, it seems that there are different positions: the president, Massimo Tononi, would be in favor of the Unicredit option while the rest of the board would insist on the wedding with Bper. Meanwhile, the CEO, Giuseppe Castagna, believes that the postponement of tax benefits on DTAs "gives us a little more space to continue our search to find a good merger" while he is less enthusiastic about the fact "that the threshold of convertible DTAs it would go from 2 to 3% because it would benefit other institutions ”. For Dimito of the Caltagirone group newspaper, here Castagna would allude to a pro-Unicredit advantage. Banco Bpm, on the other hand, would not seem tempted by Carige which could interest Crédit Agricole Italia, which is sending the takeover bid on Credito Valtellinese into port.
THE FEAR OF TRADE UNIONS
The voices are chasing each other and at the same time the fears of the unions grow. “I smell burnt. Right now, rumors are circulating that I do not like them at all: we are talking, quite concretely, of mega mergers between banks, which could also affect more than two groups, in relation to which we must pay the utmost attention ", is the thought of Lando Maria Sileoni, number one of Fabi. “Operations of this type are dangerous, they become the pretext and the opportunity to produce thousands of redundancies among male and female workers – he highlights -. We will oppose with any means at our disposal to operations that could provoke a social butchery ”. Furthermore, according to Sileoni, “we believe that it is a duty of the State to find a solution for Monte dei Paschi di Siena and for the 20,000 people who work there as well as for their families. This is the absolute priority, also considering that I understand that this government does not intend to give MPS the possibility of remaining autonomous for some time ”.
On the same length Nino Baseotto, general secretary Fisac CGIL: “We do not intend to participate in the chase of these alleged indiscretions. However, one thing must be said clearly and forcefully: the Government must say in which direction it intends to move, in the interest of the national banking system and to protect the employment and professionalism that workers have always expressed ”.
Riccardo Colombani, First Cisl secretary general, is asking for an interruption of the pro-merger activities. “The mergers wanted by the government with the expected measure on the DTAs and confirmed by the statements of some bankers will severely reduce employment and the presence, already to the bone, of branches in the territory. This year alone, the main groups will close a thousand – he underlines -. In addition to the workers, the consequences will be paid by the customers, deprived of the possibility of choosing in one of the most concentrated markets in Europe ”.
Fulvio Furlan, secretary general of Uilca, launches another alarm: "The credit sector will play a central role in managing the resources of the National Relaunch and Resilience Plan, therefore it must consolidate itself with a logic of sustainability compatible with the fundamental social task that banks must perform. . In this scenario, banks that may be affected by mergers, such as Banco Bpm, Bper, and those in difficulty, such as Mps, Carige and others, cannot be seen as simple pieces to be moved, but their identity and identity must be respected. sacrifices with which male and female workers have worked in recent years to guarantee its continuity ”.
Emilio Contrasto, general secretary of Unisin Confsal aims at choices “oriented towards both economic and social sustainability”. "The trade unions in the sector will not allow these operations to take place on the shoulders of the workers – he concludes -, nullifying the enormous sacrifices made so far by all the employees in the sector and in particular by the colleagues of Monte who have directly contributed to the rescue of the bank".
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/economia/chi-lavora-per-un-triangolo-unicredit-mps-bpm/ on Tue, 11 May 2021 09:23:31 +0000.