Will Europe face a new wave of Covid?
According to WHO and ECDC, a new wave of Covid could have started in Europe. Here are data and forecasts
A new wave of Covid may have started in Europe. This is what was stated in a joint note by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (Ecdc).
WHAT THE WHO AND ECDC HAVE SAID
“While we are not where we were a year ago, it is clear that the Covid-19 pandemic is not over yet. Unfortunately, in Europe the indicators are on the rise again, which suggests that another wave of infections has begun ”. Not only. “With the arrival of autumn and winter, a resurgence of the flu is foreseeable”. Thus began the declaration of WHO and ECDC.
“In light of this, – they continue – we reconfirm the need to protect the health of people, especially the most vulnerable, using all available tools, including vaccination. The preparatory measures must continue in the European Region, we must not let our guard down ”.
WHAT THE DATA SAY ABOUT INFECTIONS
WHO data for regions, Reuters reports, showed that only Europe saw an increase in Covid cases in the week ending October 2, an increase of 8% compared to the previous week.
The ECDC, in the update of 7 October , makes it known that the notification rate of infections among people over 65 has increased by 14% compared to the previous week and increases have been observed in 19 of the 26 countries that reported data on this. indicator.
TWINDEMIA RISK
But in addition to the increase in infections due to the SARS-CoV-2 virus, public health experts fear a twindemia, or a "twin epidemic", caused by the combination of Covid and seasonal flu.
As Christian Wiedermann of the Institute of General Medicine and Public Health in Bolzano explained : “In autumn and winter in South Tyrol we may encounter multiple simultaneous infections caused by different respiratory viruses. Often a double infection leads to a more severe course of the disease and also an increase in mortality ”.
A greater number of cases of influenza are expected, which seemed to have almost disappeared in the last two years, also because the introduction from March 2020 of measures such as interpersonal distance and the mask could have weakened our immune defenses.
"The potential co-circulation of Covid-19 and seasonal flu will expose vulnerable people to a greater risk of serious illness and death, with the likelihood of increasing the pressure on hospitals and health workers, already exhausted for the nearly three years spent at the forefront of the pandemic ”, reads the joint statement.
SO WHAT TO DO?
Given these not exactly rosy forecasts, WHO and Ecdc urged European countries to administer both the flu and the Covid vaccine because "vaccination remains one of the most effective tools against both viruses" and "many of the subjects most at risk of Covid -19 severe are also at high risk of contracting a severe flu infection ”.
The invitation is aimed above all at those who are not yet vaccinated, health workers, the over 60, the frail and pregnant women because too many infections would burden health systems again, making us go back several months.
“Vaccination saves lives. It decreases the chances of getting infected and reduces the risk of serious consequences from Covid-19 and seasonal flu. There is no time to waste ”, concludes the note.
The co-circulation of # COVID19 and seasonal influenza could put the most vulnerable and our healthcare systems at risk this winter.
Together with @ECDC_EU and @WHO_Europe , we encourage everyone to come forward for vaccination against both viruses.
Vaccination saves lives. https://t.co/5rIcYrsVxh
– Stella Kyriakides (@SKyriakidesEU) October 12, 2022
DATA ON VACCINATIONS
In EU countries, according to the ECDC update, a booster dose of the anti Covid vaccine was received by 65% of the population over 18, by 84.2% of those over 60 and by 53.9% of the total population.
The second recall, on the other hand, was made by 8.7% of the over 18s, by 17.8% of people aged 60 or over and by 7.1% of the total population.
WHICH ARE THE VARIATIONS IN CIRCULATION
Among the 12 countries with an adequate volume of sequencing or genotyping for the weeks from 12 September to 25 September 2022, the ECDC estimates that 98.7% of the circulation of the virus is due to the variants BA.4 and BA.5, for 0.9% to BA.2.75 (better known as Centaurus ) and finally for 0.7% to BA.2.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/sanita/leuropa-affrontera-una-nuova-ondata-di-covid/ on Thu, 13 Oct 2022 09:14:08 +0000.