Draghi no longer indispensable, the big maneuvers for “Ursula” and Lega at the crossroads begin

1 February 20222 years ago babelfish

Once the Colle has been secured, it is finally possible to vote. In May, or even June. No, it is not a prediction, we are not claiming that there will be a vote, but that after the re-election of Mattarella this option is unlocked . The main reason why this legislature, although politically exhausted already in 2019, has been mummified and dragged to date, that is to avoid that a right-wing majority could emerge from an early vote to elect a president of the right-wing Republic, has failed.

From the point of view of the Democratic Party, the main institution of the political system, the Quirinale, thanks to which it has been able to govern for 9 of the last 10 years despite consensus down from 25 to 18 percent, has been secured for another 7 years. .

Of course, there would be a couple more issues to settle to further secure the political framework in view of the 2023 elections. For example, a fully proportional electoral law, which happened to be talked about a minute after the re-election of Mattarella and the split between the center-right parties on the vote. The pure proportional would be the tombstone on the center-right and would sanction the definitive overcoming of bipolarism (even of the simulacrum we have today). Each would run on its own, the ruling coalition would be formed after the vote, not before. In fact, it would mean pre-establishing the future government majority, regardless of the political outcome of the vote: an "Ursula" coalition, already very likely under the current system, of which the Democratic Party would be the pivot, with what remains of the 5 Stars on one side and Renzi, centrists and Forza Italia on the other. In a new conventio ad excludendum , the forces of not undisputed Europeanist faith would remain outside.

And Draghi? Mario Draghi's political function at Palazzo Chigi was also largely exhausted with the re-election of Mattarella. The second question would remain: to bring home the ratification of the new ESM – the European Stability Mechanism – with the votes of the League as the icing on the cake. The definitive armoring of the EU external constraint, to which any Eurosceptic majorities would also be subjected.

But the function of Draghi, in the eyes of the Democratic Party and Matteo Renzi, was that of a safety car , which would accompany the legislature up to the election of the President of the Republic, avoiding early voting. The Conte 2 government was in fact by now decocted: under the blows of the pandemic, with a vaccination campaign still to be organized, it was drifting dangerously, risking to compromise the continuation of the legislature, and the former premier did not offer sufficient guarantees to Brussels of being in able to prepare the NRR, preparatory to the issuance of the Recovery Fund loans.

In short, if close to the voting for the Quirinale the premier was asked to stay at Palazzo Chigi to "finish the work" started, now for the main donors the work is completed in its fundamental part.

Does this mean that Draghi will get well served? No, because in the election campaign year that awaits us, having your competence at Palazzo Chigi shelters the governing parties from the coming storm, and it is not certain that he will not be useful as prime minister even at the beginning of the next legislature, for to convince Forza Italia and Lega, if needed, to give birth to the “Ursula” majority. But certainly with the re-election of Mattarella the indispensability of Draghi disappeared. Of course, then it will be necessary to see if Draghi wants to remain entangled in Italian politics and lend himself to acting as the lightning rod of the parties, which is not at all obvious.

It is no coincidence that in analyzing the outcome of the match for the Colle we defined it as the war of the viceroys . The one between the two candidates that we have always considered the only ones really in the field – Mattarella (Pd) and Draghi – can in fact be read as the challenge between two options for the commissioner of our country, one more political but not devoid of technical elements, and above all bureaucratic, and the other more technocratic but not devoid of political elements. It was a question of choosing which of the two viceroys should reign in Italy on behalf of the EU. The Democratic Party considers itself the only guarantor and interpreter of the EU external bond and is not willing to share this primacy with others. Also because it is precisely this primacy, conquered by incorporating his old ideologies and all the interests of which he is the spokesperson into the pro-European dogma, which allowed him to remain in the government in the face of consensus reduced to a minimum, thanks essentially to the control of the Quirinale and the banks. external and internal.

The finishing touches are lacking – proportional law and ratification of the Mes – but today early voting is an unlocked option. And with the unlocked vote option, watch out for accidental hits. In fact, there are several subjects who, deliberately or not, could cause the irreparable political "accident" in the coming weeks.

It will not be the Democratic Party that will pull the trigger, but neither does it have any greater reasons to fear the accidental blow. Indeed, the moment would be propitious: he has just taken home the presidency of the Republic for another 7 years, Draghi is no longer indispensable; the center-right is more than disjointed, decomposed. The 5 Stars torn apart by internal feuds, could not help but cling to the Democratic Party. Waiting for 2023 would instead have at least two contraindications: the worsening of Silvio Berlusconi's health could penalize the electoral performance of one of the potential government allies; moreover, all the discontent and anger that Italians will have accumulated over the course of 2022 – a year that promises to be even more dramatic than the previous ones for the economy, including skyrocketing energy bills, galloping inflation, entire sectors on the ground, the end of monetary policy accommodating – would pour into the polls against the ruling parties.

Reading the newspapers of these days, for his part Draghi seems to want to continue to exacerbate the tensions and divisions in the parties, to the point of breaking them up, on his name, unleashing his transversal "army" in support of the government agenda: "now no more compromises ”,“ one reform a week without looking anyone in the face ”,“ it will not back down and will not suffer ultimatums ”,“ strong in a conviction: in all parties of the majority there is a governing soul you can certainly rely on ”.

In a political context that looks like a powder keg, with the winners of the match for the Colle in a position of strength and the losers chewing bitter, a spark would be enough. The Democratic Party no longer has any interest in mediating to keep the safety car on track, at least no longer at all costs. And even parties, such as the Lega, which have not gathered what they imagined from the experience of government, may be less willing to continue to suffer.

And Mattarella, how will he use the power of dissolution of the Chambers, returned to his availability after the end of the white semester? To threaten the parties to send them home, thus supporting Draghi's action? Or vice versa, this time by dissolving them, when the Pd district is ahead on the starting line?

In short, at this stage the “no more compromises” line, moving forward “without looking anyone in the face”, gives the unpleasant impression of a prime minister on the hunt for a political incident who can free him from the Palazzo Chigi trap before the perfect storm arrives. The divisions in the parties that did not help him get to the Colle should offer him the excuse to say hello this time. Another political blackmail: either full powers, without mediation, or I'm leaving. But this time around, more than one might not be so sorry.

In this match game, the League finds itself in a lose-lose position: either it swallows the rest of the Draghi agenda, or it will have to take responsibility for having blown the bank, leaving a government in which it had invested a lot of its capital. politician, implicitly agreeing with his right-wing competitor , who remained in opposition from the beginning. Coming very close to the attention of Parliament, a series of decrees on the Green Pass by now outdated by events, as well as of dubious legitimacy, the provision on the bathing establishments, the fiscal delegation with the land registry reform, the ratification of the Mes (it is not a mystery that the political result to which it is aimed is to make it pass with the votes of the League too).

In their evaluations at Via Bellerio they should start from the observation that the "grand strategy" that led them to the Draghi government, and to support even the most hateful, liberticidal and anti-scientific measures, such as the Green Pass , did not stand the test of facts. A year ago we warned of the risks of a mere accreditation operation, aimed at deriving legitimacy from the support for Draghi at a domestic and European level, that respectability in the eyes of the establishment and the EU powers that should have opened the doors of Palazzo Chigi wide. to a Premier League. The Draghi government as an opportunity to dismiss the season of sovereign unpresentability: we then defined it as the "trap of the moderate turning point", because when the license of respectability is issued, it can in any case be revoked at any time, as the great scandal on the left for the candidacy has shown by Berlusconi, as it happens, the votes fail …

You will remember one of the arguments in support of participation in the Draghi government: we must enter the match for the Quirinale, otherwise they re-elect a Pd president and approve a proportional electoral law to break up the center-right. Well, the governing League has just voted a Pd president and the next step is approaching: the proportional one, on which openings not only from Forza Italia but also from the League have arrived in these hours. After the support for Draghi and the vote for Mattarella, it would be the third test of intelligence with the enemy.

To regain the initiative and try to put together the pieces of the center-right, Matteo Salvini yesterday relaunched the idea of a federation, on the model of the American Republican Party. Daniele Capezzone in his book “For a new right” suggests to the center-right parties the perspective of the US Gop, adopting its fusionist culture.

But it would be a real shame if such a precious and far-sighted prospect were thrown in as yet another joke to fill the pages of newspapers or television talks for a few days.

With a proportional or hybrid electoral system, a center-right coalition cannot stand, let alone a party. The American Republican Party is not one piece in government with Biden and one piece in the opposition. The Republican Party, and Republican governors, such as Ron DeSantis in Florida, oppose vaccination requirements and restrictions, and have not proposed health passes as "instruments of freedom."

In short, before launching "high" ideas, clear, clear-cut choices are urgently needed, carried out with consistency.

The post Draghi no longer indispensable, the big maneuvers for “Ursula” and Lega al bivio start appeared first on Atlantico Quotidiano .

This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Atlantico Quotidiano at the URL https://www.atlanticoquotidiano.it/quotidiano/draghi-non-piu-indispensabile-al-via-le-grandi-manovre-per-ursula-e-lega-al-bivio/ on Tue, 01 Feb 2022 01:06:16 +0000.