Hours counted for Count 2, the majority “Ursula” is preparing for the new “Monti cure”
The fate of Conte 2 seems to be sealed: it can be understood from how the marker of Conte's supporters (the threat of early elections) vanishes to the advantage of the marker of his opponents (the impracticability, for the majority, of early elections). A clash that, in Atlantico Quotidiano , we described as between Bettini and Renzi: between those who give priority to the alliance with the 5 Stars and those under the orders of Brussels. Renzi is winning it, in the name of Europe.
It is not taken for granted that the next Prime Minister will be Count again: certainly, no one doubts that he would be able to exchange the mask of the cantor of generous Europe with that of the proconsul of ferocious Europe, at the same speed with which he removed the mask of populist just 18 months ago. But, in Brussels, they accuse him of inaction and anticipate wanting to reject the Recovery drafts he has produced so far. Therefore, it is not a sin to imagine that, in the next government, as Di Maio is to Foreign Affairs, he will end up in the Interior or in Defense: prestigious government posts, yes, even close to the Services that he likes so much, but not directly invested by the diktat EU. On the contrary, the example of Bonafede applies, who could be thrown out, not because of his own justicialism, but because he is not quick to carry out what Brussels has dictated on justice: in fact, it is thought to replace him with Orlando, one who has already given proof of blind loyalty with the horrid Rordorf reform. There is already talk (probably nonsense) of a Gualtieri government: from the “slave of Casalino” ( Dagospia ) to the slave of Europe.
The summit of the Democratic Party (Zingaretti, Orlando, Bettini), which is repeating that Renzi's objective is political ("the political murder of the Democratic Party … an institutional government with Salvini and Forza Italia, from which we will leave without having a alliance with the 5S led by Conte, therefore defeated in the elections "), has completely wrong analysis. Orbo to the point of not seeing that Paris and Brussels would never let him stake all the stakes on the roulette of early elections. And that the Pd and 5S parliamentarians are already sharing their posts in the new government. And that Conte is only negotiating his (political) severance pay and could resign at any moment.
The new pro-European majority (“Ursula”) would be very similar to the previous one, only extended to the Calenda-Bonino-Brunetta- & Affini (less plausibly to Berlusconi with the bulk of Forza Italia): a troop ready to support any sacrifice Brussels wants to impose on us. The time of Conte's immobility and his narration of the EU as the blue fairy who brings manna with her (Pasquino, De Bortoli, Minister Amendola linger there) is over. The time has come for the fanatics: those who not only admit that the supposed manna is linked to the reform € , but also are pleased with it as only the hard whip would make the country grow (Veronica De Romanis) and would even win the elections to the Democratic Party (Marco Bentivogli).
Well, if you look closely at these reforms , it would not seem: we listed them in July on Atlantico , describing them as “the Monti-Plus Finance Act; again, as in 2011, imposed on an economy emerging from a very serious recession, only to plunge it into a worse one; again, as in 2011, Brussels expects its commandments to be aimed at strengthening the potential for growth, creating jobs… but we already know how it ends ” . And it amuses us very much to see them listed today – six months later – in la Repubblica , decorated with excusatio non petita : "the link between money and reforms has been known since July, but now Brussels is clearly confirming it". Sleep well, Comrades.
There is no one who does not see that the Democratic Party is running to electoral suicide. Hence the Corriere della Sera 's dream of involving the opposition (Verderami, Mieli ), continually giving breath to a Giorgetti evidently convinced, in his heart, that the ration offered by Monti was excellent and abundant. Dream opposed by the Republic with Stefano Folli, who considers the involvement of Lega and FdI as impracticable. That newspaper, rather, leans towards the same old solution: the financial crisis. And here he is screaming that the fear of early elections dominated by the League would have made the spread rise by 8 points, the yield of the BTP above that of the Greek twin, the Italian banks go down on the stock market, induced Moody's threatening us with downgrading. The exact same narrative of 2013 and 2018 and which accompanied the Democratic Party from 40 percent in the polls at the time to 18 percent of today's polls.
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It is important to underline how these reforms would be the same, if it were not the Recovery Fund – which is still stranded in the parliaments of Northern Europe – but the Mes, which Renzi never tires of asking loudly. Those who present this request as a tactical expedient, a way to divide the majority, have understood nothing. A great Parisian gentleman, Alain Minc , explained it: Conte "did a favor to Europe, when he won the challenge with Salvini" and therefore, when "out of pride" he refused the Mes, they prepared the Recovery-Mes for him . Subtext: if, instead of Conte, the Democratic Party comes who has always said yes to the Mes, then the Recovery is no longer needed.
Because, Paris does not care about the Recovery (it is a net contributor and is already anticipating expenses with its own money): in Paris it matters that, when Merkel leaves, the ECB continues "with zero or even negative rates". But if Italy did not submit to the reforms , it would give "arguments to the more conservative part of German opinion", that is, it would cause trouble for the ECB.
Words that open a glimmer of light on the main mystery of this whole story. Monti in 2011, in fact, to "destroy internal demand" [sic] at least had the excuse of wanting to reduce our trade deficit with foreign countries. He did it so well that, today, Italy enjoys one of the best trade surpluses on the planet and a negative net external debt: this is a credit, we are creditors to the rest of the world. But, precisely for this reason, what the hell is the use of destroying other internal demand ?! The explanation implicitly offered by Minc is convincing: a new Monti treatment would throw Italy into deflation, therefore it would reduce the average inflation of the Eurozone, thus allowing the ECB to continue the ongoing monetization of French debt ad libitum . In short, a new Monti treatment in Italy is needed by France. Thank you very much.
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If Italy does not submit, continues Minc, "it will remain a terrible scar for decades to come" … with France. Note the reader well, he does not say that Italy, if it did not submit to the reforms , would suffer on its own: no, he says that its relations with France would suffer. That is, with Macrone it takes deflation. And who cares about Macrone.
This conclusion by Minc is exactly the same as the French minister Le Maire ("Do you want Europe to be a single market?"), Domenico Siniscalco (the Italians would find themselves "doing it alone"), Marco Bentivogli ("the Hungary or Venezuela "), Salvatore Bragantini (" the EU would conclude that we must divide into two circles, we would end up among the sloth "), Alberto d'Argenio (the Recovery as" the last chance to remain linked to the Eurozone ") . For all of them a curse, for a sovereign a blessing, indeed: the Plan.
Of course, the Democratic Party which, with its new majority Ursula and under the orders of Brussels, will practice a second Monti treatment, will cause serious and painful wounds in the living flesh of the nation… but Lega and FdI cannot prevent it. What they can do, however, is keep open the eyes of how many Italians are willing to listen to them … in numbers that will only grow. While they cultivate a reserve ruling class, made up of the deplorables that so displease the establishment (the "unpresentable anti-Europeanists who occupy the seats of the League in Montecitorio and Palazzo Madama", Il Foglio ), who, after the Democratic Party miserably failed, they will constitute the only credible force in Parliament and in the country.
They say that Giorgetti goes around saying that, by joining the Ursula majority, the League "would have the guarantee of being able to govern after an electoral victory". If this disclosure were true, we would like to give him some advice: he should leave the party and join Ciampolillo, Mastella and Tabacci … a stool to the right of Undersecretary Misiani would not be denied him.
The post Hours counted for Count 2, the majority "Ursula" is preparing for the new "Monti cure" appeared first on Atlantico Quotidiano .
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Atlantico Quotidiano at the URL http://www.atlanticoquotidiano.it/quotidiano/ore-contate-per-il-conte-2-si-prepara-la-maggioranza-ursula-per-la-nuova-cura-monti/ on Mon, 25 Jan 2021 05:07:00 +0000.