Germany, who is Merz (and what does he think of China) aiming at the leadership of the CDU
Because Merz's second attempt to succeed Merkel at the helm of the German Christian Democratic party resembles an egg race. The in-depth study by Pierluigi Mennitti
The postman always rings twice, but once again Friedrich Merz risks finding the CDU house blocked. His second attempt to succeed Angela Merkel at the head of the German Christian Democratic party resembles an egg race. Every move can be a false step, a stumbling block on the pavement of the politically correct which is paved in the German public debate. It was enough for him to become entangled in an ambiguous reasoning about gays and pedophilia to raise ghosts of homophobia. It is enough for you to hint at proposals for tax relief to revive accusations of neoliberalism and business lobbying. It was enough for him to venture the card of the outsider that challenges the Merkelian establishment to end up caged right in the populist box.
The influential Politico newspaper has branded him as the German Trump , and for the right-most man of the trio who will compete in January to take up the baton of the stainless chancellor, the most urgent task – at least with the foreign press – is to shake off the image of an impetuous and resentful politician.
This is why there is so much Europe in Germany that Merz describes to foreign journalists stationed in Berlin (meeting strictly via Zoom), almost a return to Kohl's sense for the construction of the common home, with German interests diluted and accommodated with partners. European because, in the new world of the great competition between the United States and China, the states of the old Europe can have tone and influence only if they speak with a single voice.
Then there is a clear and clear closure to the right, towards any possible collaboration with Afd, the nationalist party (today the term sovereign is more fashionable) which has also grown by exploiting the conservative electoral space, according to Merz neglected by the Merkelian CDU. A temptation that often resurfaces in regional politics, especially in the east, where the federations of the CDU do not show sufficient self-esteem and run after the aggressive sirens of the nationalists. It had happened in Thuringia (conflict that cost Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer the presidency), it is happening again in Saxony-Anhalt due to the question of the increase in the tax for public television. The CDU must be a barrier to extremism, and that of the right has been underestimated in its capacity to radicalize and build networks.
Merz reaffirms the centrist course of the party, assures that he does not want to move it to the right by a millimeter, but simply that he wants to broaden its spectrum, give voice and space even to that more conservative section of the electorate that has no longer felt represented by the CDU and which only it is capable of integrating into a democratic process. We realized – he added – that democracy in Germany is not as consolidated as we believed from a Western perspective until reunification.
Merz is convinced that the party needs a clear and strong profile, recognizable again for what it is and for what it wants, with a renewed staff that elaborates a well-defined idea of the role of Germany in the coming years. A party naturally ready for compromises but also for conflicts, discussions, confrontation of ideas with political allies and opponents. It is one of the many breaking points with Merkel's twenty years, perhaps the most important: a party of principles, values and recognized positions that are the compass of future policies and alliances, not a large container with indefinite contents, modeled according to opportunities contingents.
This is the core of Merz's “conservatism”: the return to politics as a firm reference of values and principles from which party action springs, not as a daily and flexible management of problems as they arise. But that this model is the most suitable to face the challenges of these times has to be demonstrated.
In addition to having to shake off the German Trump brand, Merz must in fact convince the delegates of his party that he is not a protagonist now outdated by the times, tied to an idea of politics no longer suitable for facing contemporary crises. This is why he speaks of Europe and the USA, of transatlantic relations and NATO, with different hints than Macron's millenarianisms: Biden's election offers Europeans the opportunity to return to discuss common interests and to strengthen our multilateral institutions , argues Merz, but NATO is not dead. We need major reforms and a solid European pillar within the Alliance. The US and Europe will still, and for a long time, be mutually dependent on security issues.
Merz speaks above all of China, "frequented for a long time in the professional years spent outside politics". China for a long time underestimated. The rapid dynamics and nature of its capacity for innovation have not been understood. We have not understood how a Communist party plans its innovative strategies. The authoritarian regimes have time on their side, they plan for the long term, they do not have the constraints of short electoral horizons. The only two things they need to do are: keep power and leave enough free space for the economy. This is what Beijing has done, and now with the Silk Road it unrolls a global and imperial strategy in front of Europe.
There is regret for the cancellation of the EU-China summit in Leipzig, for the fact that the German semester of the EU presidency has been wiped out by the pandemic: China has a strategy for Europe, Europe does not have one for China, and it is good that you equip it as soon as possible. The key word is: reciprocity. Until recently it could not even be pronounced, but it was a mistake to believe that Beijing would become a democracy thanks to its entry into the WTO . Germany itself has become too dependent commercially: in the short term we have had advantages, in the long term we will have problems. A compass is also needed for foreign and trade policy, says Merz.
But to take over the reins of the party (at the beginning of the 2000s he was the leader of the Bundestag, a role that Merkel later claimed for herself as leader of the opposition to the Schröder government, and from there the break between the two became irremediable), Merz must win the digital congress on January 15th. The majority of the German electorate (voters from all parties) would see him well in the role of president of the CDU: according to a latest poll, 27% of the voters are convinced that he is the right man. If it seems little, just take a look at the percentages of the other two challengers: Norbert Röttgen totals 22, favorite Armin Laschet even 15. A small sign for the delegates, since whoever will lead the CDU will have many chances to apply for the registry and will have to intercept the consent of all voters.
But to elect Merkel's successor (in theory of Kramp-Karrenbauer, but that's another story) will be the 1001 delegates, members of the apparatus elected by the federations, shaped by twenty years of Merkelism. What counts are the positions acquired, the small and large personal ambitions, the packages of votes and all that makes the CDU a traditional party, strong also for this reason. Merz warns: the consensus of recent months (the CDU fluctuates in the polls between 34 and 37%) is due to the crisis of the pandemic and will not last long. It refers to a year ago, when the party had slipped to 25%. In the meantime, it has collected the support of the youth organization. But two years ago, when she ran against Kramp-Karrenbauer as a candidate of a weak and tired Merkel, she reached 48%, a huge but insufficient result. Now the chancellor is firmly back in the saddle and it will not be easy for an outsider to convince his future political orphans that he is the right person to fill the void. But if anything has become inscrutable, that is an election at the time of the pandemic.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/germania-chi-e-e-cosa-pensa-della-cina-merz-che-punta-alla-guida-della-cdu/ on Wed, 09 Dec 2020 10:58:02 +0000.